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Investor, Institutional Asset Management Background

14 May, 21:50Latest

Figma is monetizing AI tokens rather than being eaten by them, and could out-execute Adobe and gain share before AI reaches it. Q1 revenue rose 46% to $333M with 139% net dollar retention. About 60% of $100K+ customers use Figma Make weekly, and after AI credit limits went live, 75% of users who had exceeded them kept using credits in April, with over 95% still active. With $1.4B of ARR against Adobe's $19B in digital media, Figma has room to take share and use AI to deepen stickiness. x.com x.com x.com

FIG

DON7SPY

Industrial Engineer, MBA Finance, Data/Supply-Chain Background, Options Analysis

16 May

FIG

Figma is eating AI's lunch rather than being destroyed by it, yet trades at only about 10x sales in the $20s. Q1 revenue of $333M beat, growth accelerated to 46% for a second straight quarter, net dollar retention hit 139%, its highest in two years, paid customers rose 54% and guidance was raised by $55M. The market is also ignoring that Figma is itself an AI tool. The math points to $60 a share, a $30-32B market cap or even $50B. x.com x.com

CK Capital

Defense/Space/Tech/Photonics Investor, Co-Owner of CV Research

5 Aug

FIG

Figma's accelerating growth undercuts the bear case that prompt-to-interface tools like Claude Design make it obsolete. Growth went from 38% to 40% to 46%, net dollar retention is 139% and $100k+ customers rose 48%. Over 75% of enterprise users who exceeded AI credit limits kept buying credits, showing willingness to pay. NDR above 130% tonight would make the displacement argument very hard; a material drop would hand bears their data point. It trades around 10x sales. x.com

Masa’s Son

Non-Consensus Long/Short Technology Investor

18 Aug

FIG

Figma's fair value is a $3-5bn market cap, or under $9 a share. That valuation target answers @DivinelyLevered's question on what fair value underpins the short, set apart from the AI-cannibalization angle. x.com

Brad Freeman

Equity Researcher, Creator of Stock Market Nerd

15 May

FIG

Figma deserves to rally sharply on its beat-and-raise report. Figma, Twilio and Atlassian, three companies at the heart of the "software is dead" argument, all beat and raised with upbeat forward commentary, suggesting AI isn't killing them. x.com

Prepared Remarks

Equity Investor, Macro Commentary

13 Jun

FIG

Figma is a higher-beta way to play a recovery in hated software, with better management, product and growth than peers and customers who love it. Microsoft is the TSMC of software, but within design Figma offers more beta. If Adobe works, it is because design-disruption fears have subsided, and Figma catches a bid in that case. x.com

Dr J Rould

Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background

14 Jul

FIG

Figma faces a long-term competitive threat because its users have already shown they will switch: every Figma user left the Adobe suite once a better option emerged. If a genuinely better suite at a similar price came along, from Anthropic for example, they could switch again, enterprise layer included. A post the author replies to argues Figma's moat is its governance layer and system of record, citing 46% growth and 139% net dollar retention. A short-term software rebound remains possible. … Show more

Dan Loewenherz

Building at Opendoor, Former CTO at Coffee Meets Bagel

23 Apr

FIG

Figma is priced as if the company is going to die, which is crazy, making it a long-term 10x opportunity over one to two years or more. Revenue is growing over 40% year on year with an essentially monopolistic, excellent core product, an outstanding team and 90% Fortune 500 penetration with huge expansion potential, especially once Figma Make is figured out. The AI threat is overblown, since this product can't be vibe-coded, and negative software sentiment is weighing on the stock. x.com x.com … Show more

Venu

Position Trader, Market Leaders, Fundamental/Technical Analysis

23 Oct

ADBE

Adobe's cash generation and growing AI subscriptions give its tentative turnaround fundamental support. It has $10.59B in free cash flow; revenue and EPS are expected to grow at double-digit rates through 2028, while AI-first ARR is up 150% year over year and Firefly ARR 40% quarter over quarter. Its Stage 1 base is attempting to break a long downtrend. x.com

Biotech2k

Biotech Investor, AI-Driven Drug Discovery

11 Jul

FIG

Figma is the company most likely to be wiped out by AI, since AI image generation replaces the need for its design tools. x.com

Ashton Invests

Long-Term Equity Investor, Fundamental Stock Research

10 Sep

ADBE

Adobe's AI-first ARR passing $500M and growing more than 150% year over year is a strong answer to the belief that AI will only hurt the company. AI is still a small part of the business, but the quarter was a really solid beat and raise. x.com

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