CK Capital
Defense/Space/Tech/Photonics Investor, Co-Owner of CV Research
Figma's accelerating growth undercuts the bear case that prompt-to-interface tools like Claude Design make it obsolete. Growth went from 38% to 40% to 46%, net dollar retention is 139% and $100k+ customers rose 48%. Over 75% of enterprise users who exceeded AI credit limits kept buying credits, showing willingness to pay. NDR above 130% tonight would make the displacement argument very hard; a material drop would hand bears their data point. It trades around 10x sales. x.com
Figma is monetizing AI tokens rather than being eaten by them, and could out-execute Adobe and gain share before AI reaches it. Q1 revenue rose 46% to $333M with 139% net dollar retention. About 60% of $100K+ customers use Figma Make weekly, and after AI credit limits went live, 75% of users who had exceeded them kept using credits in April, with over 95% still active. With $1.4B of ARR against Adobe's $19B in digital media, Figma has room to take share and use AI to deepen stickiness. x.com … Show more
Figma is eating AI's lunch rather than being destroyed by it, yet trades at only about 10x sales in the $20s. Q1 revenue of $333M beat, growth accelerated to 46% for a second straight quarter, net dollar retention hit 139%, its highest in two years, paid customers rose 54% and guidance was raised by $55M. The market is also ignoring that Figma is itself an AI tool. The math points to $60 a share, a $30-32B market cap or even $50B. x.com x.com
Figma's fair value is a $3-5bn market cap, or under $9 a share. That valuation target answers @DivinelyLevered's question on what fair value underpins the short, set apart from the AI-cannibalization angle. x.com
Figma deserves to rally sharply on its beat-and-raise report. Figma, Twilio and Atlassian, three companies at the heart of the "software is dead" argument, all beat and raised with upbeat forward commentary, suggesting AI isn't killing them. x.com
Figma is priced as if the company is going to die, which is crazy, making it a long-term 10x opportunity over one to two years or more. Revenue is growing over 40% year on year with an essentially monopolistic, excellent core product, an outstanding team and 90% Fortune 500 penetration with huge expansion potential, especially once Figma Make is figured out. The AI threat is overblown, since this product can't be vibe-coded, and negative software sentiment is weighing on the stock. x.com x.com … Show more
Figma is still expensive and would only look attractive at Salesforce, Workday or Atlassian multiples. A post the author replies to argues the stock's failure to jump on strong numbers shows how bad sentiment is. x.com
Figma is a $40 stock trading at $23, a deep discount to its value. x.com
Figma is a higher-beta way to play a recovery in hated software, with better management, product and growth than peers and customers who love it. Microsoft is the TSMC of software, but within design Figma offers more beta. If Adobe works, it is because design-disruption fears have subsided, and Figma catches a bid in that case. x.com
Figma is setting up a reversal on record weekly volume after stellar earnings. x.com
Figma is an undervalued, fast-growing software stock that everyone will soon turn bullish on, and it could trade above $40 very soon. CEO and co-founder Dylan Field is a beast, and it has been one of the strongest software stocks in recent weeks. A circulating rumor that Apple may acquire Adobe would put an even higher premium on Figma. x.com
