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Dan Loewenherz

Building at Opendoor, Former CTO at Coffee Meets Bagel

23 Apr, 23:04Latest

Figma is priced as if the company is going to die, which is crazy, making it a long-term 10x opportunity over one to two years or more. Revenue is growing over 40% year on year with an essentially monopolistic, excellent core product, an outstanding team and 90% Fortune 500 penetration with huge expansion potential, especially once Figma Make is figured out. The AI threat is overblown, since this product can't be vibe-coded, and negative software sentiment is weighing on the stock. x.com x.com x.com x.com

FIG

17 Apr, 22:19

Anthropic's move into design tools is a buying opportunity for Figma, not a threat. Figma is the best design product that exists and sells to designers, while Anthropic's Claude Design is built for an entirely different audience; a head of design ordering a switch from Figma to it would be taken as a joke. Anthropic releasing in this vertical shows it is flailing and distracted. x.com x.com x.com

FIG

Brad Freeman

Equity Researcher, Creator of Stock Market Nerd

15 May

FIG

Figma deserves to rally sharply on its beat-and-raise report. Figma, Twilio and Atlassian, three companies at the heart of the "software is dead" argument, all beat and raised with upbeat forward commentary, suggesting AI isn't killing them. x.com

DON7SPY

Industrial Engineer, MBA Finance, Data/Supply-Chain Background, Options Analysis

16 May

FIG

Figma is eating AI's lunch rather than being destroyed by it, yet trades at only about 10x sales in the $20s. Q1 revenue of $333M beat, growth accelerated to 46% for a second straight quarter, net dollar retention hit 139%, its highest in two years, paid customers rose 54% and guidance was raised by $55M. The market is also ignoring that Figma is itself an AI tool. The math points to $60 a share, a $30-32B market cap or even $50B. x.com x.com

Masa’s Son

Non-Consensus Long/Short Technology Investor

18 Aug

FIG

Figma's fair value is a $3-5bn market cap, or under $9 a share. That valuation target answers @DivinelyLevered's question on what fair value underpins the short, set apart from the AI-cannibalization angle. x.com

CK Capital

Defense/Space/Tech/Photonics Investor, Co-Owner of CV Research

5 Aug

FIG

Figma's accelerating growth undercuts the bear case that prompt-to-interface tools like Claude Design make it obsolete. Growth went from 38% to 40% to 46%, net dollar retention is 139% and $100k+ customers rose 48%. Over 75% of enterprise users who exceeded AI credit limits kept buying credits, showing willingness to pay. NDR above 130% tonight would make the displacement argument very hard; a material drop would hand bears their data point. It trades around 10x sales. x.com

Research & Invest

Investor, Institutional Asset Management Background

14 May

FIG

Figma is monetizing AI tokens rather than being eaten by them, and could out-execute Adobe and gain share before AI reaches it. Q1 revenue rose 46% to $333M with 139% net dollar retention. About 60% of $100K+ customers use Figma Make weekly, and after AI credit limits went live, 75% of users who had exceeded them kept using credits in April, with over 95% still active. With $1.4B of ARR against Adobe's $19B in digital media, Figma has room to take share and use AI to deepen stickiness. x.com … Show more

TrumpGrift Capital

Equity Investing Commentary

14 May

FIG

Figma is still expensive and would only look attractive at Salesforce, Workday or Atlassian multiples. A post the author replies to argues the stock's failure to jump on strong numbers shows how bad sentiment is. x.com

Noah

Stock Investor & Trader, US Equities

16 May

FIG

Figma is a $40 stock trading at $23, a deep discount to its value. x.com

Prepared Remarks

Equity Investor, Macro Commentary

13 Jun

FIG

Figma is a higher-beta way to play a recovery in hated software, with better management, product and growth than peers and customers who love it. Microsoft is the TSMC of software, but within design Figma offers more beta. If Adobe works, it is because design-disruption fears have subsided, and Figma catches a bid in that case. x.com

Dr J Rould

Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background

14 Jul

FIG

Figma faces a long-term competitive threat because its users have already shown they will switch: every Figma user left the Adobe suite once a better option emerged. If a genuinely better suite at a similar price came along, from Anthropic for example, they could switch again, enterprise layer included. A post the author replies to argues Figma's moat is its governance layer and system of record, citing 46% growth and 139% net dollar retention. A short-term software rebound remains possible. … Show more

NightHawk Capital

Stock Investor

18 Jul

FIG

Figma is an undervalued, fast-growing software stock that everyone will soon turn bullish on, and it could trade above $40 very soon. CEO and co-founder Dylan Field is a beast, and it has been one of the strongest software stocks in recent weeks. A circulating rumor that Apple may acquire Adobe would put an even higher premium on Figma. x.com

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