Techquity
Technology Investor, Fundamental Research
SK hynix's reported growth and shareholder returns make its low earnings multiple stand out. Revenue rose 328% year over year and operating profit 632%, with shareholder returns worth about 9.5% of market cap, yet the stock trades at roughly 3.0 times estimated 2027 earnings. x.com
A new sell-side forecast for SK hynix's Q4 operating profit strengthens its low-valuation case. The report looks for a 40% sequential rise to $88B, up 560% year over year. SK hynix might earn over $350B in operating profit in 2027 against an $800B market cap, or about 2x EV/operating profit after accounting for cash and its Kioxia stake. It could afford to buy back half its shares over three years. x.com
SK hynix's US listing trades at a 20% premium to Korea, hard to justify for a peak cyclical name on peak earnings whose estimates were just revised down. x.com
SK hynix is preferable to Intel on valuation. Intel shares trade at 20 times next year's EBITDA, versus 2 times EV/EBITDA for SK hynix. x.com
SK hynix's exceptional margins and contracted capacity underpin a bullish outlook despite shares sitting around half their June high. Q3 operating margin reached 80%, up from 47% a year ago; long-term deals with 14 customers cover over half of 2027-28 capacity, and management expects demand to exceed supply through 2030. x.com
Micron, SK hynix and SanDisk look absurdly cheap, but the market refuses to pay more for their earnings because no one knows what sales or margins look like five years out. Today's roughly 5x earnings could prove ridiculously cheap, yet those earnings could just as easily fall until 5x becomes 20x. That raises the question of whether owning them is investment or speculation. x.com x.com
SK hynix's expected widening supply-demand gap makes the 2028 downcycle implied by its valuation seem impossible. SK hynix management says its shares are undervalued relative to earnings and cash flow, and that assessment rings true. x.com x.com
SK hynix should reprice strongly because its blowout earnings make the case that memory is structurally different now. At the current earnings pace, it would earn back its entire market cap in two years; buybacks and dividends also return cash to shareholders and add to value. x.com
The memory drawdown is worrying for Micron and SK hynix bulls, because if Bernstein's estimates are right, earnings will collapse and holding these stocks will feel gnarly. Markets are seldom wrong about why stocks trade at the valuations they do. x.com x.com
SK hynix trades at about 3x next year's earnings once adjusted for cash build and equity stakes, with $200B+ of profit expected next year. If 2028 profit matches, its enterprise value would be $400B or less, under 2x 2029 earnings; even if pricing falls, a bad scenario is about 5x 2029 earnings. Per @wallstengine, Q2 operating margin hit a record 76% as revenue rose 257% year on year, though revenue and profit missed estimates. x.com