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GrowthTurtle

Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma

16 Aug, 19:43Latest

Riot Platforms already owns energized ERCOT megawatts, the scarcest input in the AI buildout, as new grid interconnects run years out. That is why a frontier AI lab, reported as Anthropic, signed a 20-year, 191-MW Rockdale lease worth about $9.1B, though full load isn't until June 2028. Riot should be valued on contracted megawatts, not sales. The risk is that it stays unprofitable and bitcoin-levered until the ramp, with one tenant carrying the story and $878M of debt against $471M of cash. x.com

RIOT

Nicholas Mugalli

Institutional TMT & Macro Research, AI/Semiconductors/Policy

11 Aug

RIOT

Riot Platforms' 20-year compute leases with Anthropic and AMD rerate it from bitcoin miner to HPC infrastructure provider, reflecting an extreme scarcity premium for grid-connected power. The 286 MW, including 191 MW with Anthropic for $9.1B (upsizeable to $16.1B), imply about $2.4M per MW in annual rent at 80-90% NOI margins, or about $15 a share for Rockdale and $50 more from the remaining 1 GW on similar terms. Major revenue inflection hits in H2 2027, with full Anthropic capacity in 2028. … Show more

Rich Peter

Investor, Crypto, US Stocks & High-Dividend ETFs

7 Jun

RIOT

Riot Platforms is being re-rated from bitcoin miner to AI infrastructure provider. AMD exercised its option to double contracted capacity at Riot's Rockdale site to 50 MW, a deal valued at $636 million, and Q1 revenue of $167.2M beat the $130M consensus, with $33.2M from data-center services. Needham and Macquarie are reclassifying it. Riot also offers high-beta bitcoin exposure, and ERCOT curtailment credits bring all-in power costs to $0.03/kWh, giving resilience at cycle bottoms. x.com

Matt C

Cybersecurity Engineer, Bitcoin Background Since 2014

18 Aug

RIOT

Riot Platforms has needlessly burned more investor capital than almost any bitcoin miner this cycle. It pursued a failed Bitfarms takeover, paid exorbitant executive compensation and bought $500M of bitcoin at $98k in December 2024 only to sell it between $60k and $70k. Per the quoted post, Riot sold 9,665 BTC in the first half of 2026 at an average price of $75,785. x.com x.com

VanquishTrader

Options Prop Trading Firm

17 Aug

RIOT

Riot Platforms is positioned for the AI capacity shortage as a power-backed AI data-center developer, having signed a 20-year, $9.1B deal with Anthropic for 191 MW. AI cloud backlogs have passed $150B as large AI companies race to lock in capacity years ahead, and one provider said it could sell out its 2027 capacity at today's terms. x.com

Photon Capital

Photonics & Semiconductor Research

11 Aug

RIOT

Riot Platforms appears to be shifting toward compute and services rather than pure bitcoin mining, backed by improving financials. A major AI infrastructure investment signals confidence in compute-intensive workloads, and an expanding AMD partnership points to sustained demand for high-performance AI processors; together they suggest the shift. x.com

Sam Badawi

Stock Analyst, Creator of Origins of Alpha & Quarterly Conviction

11 Aug

RIOT

Riot Platforms' $9B, 20-year deal with Anthropic shows demand for AI compute is far from over. The contract is larger than Riot's entire $7.3B value, a direct rebuttal to bears claiming there is no demand. The AI buildout should run until 2028-2029, and free cash flow will arrive ahead of that. x.com x.com x.com x.com

Matthew Sigel

Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, Portfolio Manager of NODE ETF

11 Aug

RIOT

Riot's compute lease deal is worth about $6 per share, roughly $2 billion, in lease payments alone, excluding terminal value. That answers @tylermacro10's question of how the deal could be valued above its net contract revenue: the higher valuation includes terminal value on top of the lease payments. x.com

Patient Investor

Real Estate Developer, Public & Private Equity Investor Since 2016

23 Aug

HUT

Bitcoin miners and data-center operators that already control power, sites and interconnection, including IREN, Cipher Mining, Riot Platforms, Hut 8 and MARA, just became more valuable as Texas severely constrains new data-center capacity. Governor Greg Abbott says no new data centers are coming on board and they must not take power or water needed by communities; only projects bringing their own will clear. Regulators have under 10% of the data they need, and no special session is set. x.com … Show more

Vlad Bastion

Founder of Investment Bastion, Systematic Stock Ratings & Algorithmic Portfolios

4 Aug

RIOT

HUT

CIFR

WULF

Bitcoin miners own the scarce asset AI data centers need, grid power, yet their stocks haven't caught up. New US grid connections take 5–7 years, so miners are converting sites into powered shells leased to hyperscalers on 15–25 year fixed-price contracts. Morgan Stanley estimates these return 15–19% a year and create about $15.50 of value per watt, versus market values of $2–4.50 per watt. Analyst targets imply upside of 259% for TeraWulf, 124% for Hut 8, 82% for Cipher and 51% for Riot. x.com

Stock/Options Trader, Volume at Support/Resistance, Publisher of Volume Stocks Newsletter

21 Jul

RIOT

Riot Platforms is setting up for a breakout as its AI pivot gains power and analyst support. A Terrestrial Energy MOU could provide up to 4GW of nuclear power, AMD doubled its deal to 50MW, and KBW, Clear Street and Jefferies have targets of $37-$38. Miners sold off together as crypto cooled, but Riot is in a falling wedge with buyers stepping in at the 200 EMA. A close above $22.33 opens targets at $24.15, $26.28 and $28.84. x.com

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