Matthew Sigel
Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, Portfolio Manager of NODE ETF
Riot's compute lease deal is worth about $6 per share, roughly $2 billion, in lease payments alone, excluding terminal value. That answers @tylermacro10's question of how the deal could be valued above its net contract revenue: the higher valuation includes terminal value on top of the lease payments. x.comÂ
Riot Platforms' 286MW, 20-year compute deal with a frontier AI lab, worth $9B with an option to upsize to $16B, could be worth about $15 a share. It implies $2.4M per MW of annual rent at an 80-90% NOI margin; assuming $11M per MW of capex and 15x NOI, that is roughly $15 a share. An exclusive LOI at Corsicana on similar terms could be worth about $50 a share. The Rockdale facility is already energized and online. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Riot Platforms' 20-year compute leases with Anthropic and AMD rerate it from bitcoin miner to HPC infrastructure provider, reflecting an extreme scarcity premium for grid-connected power. The 286 MW, including 191 MW with Anthropic for $9.1B (upsizeable to $16.1B), imply about $2.4M per MW in annual rent at 80-90% NOI margins, or about $15 a share for Rockdale and $50 more from the remaining 1 GW on similar terms. Major revenue inflection hits in H2 2027, with full Anthropic capacity in 2028. … Show more
Riot Platforms already owns energized ERCOT megawatts, the scarcest input in the AI buildout, as new grid interconnects run years out. That is why a frontier AI lab, reported as Anthropic, signed a 20-year, 191-MW Rockdale lease worth about $9.1B, though full load isn't until June 2028. Riot should be valued on contracted megawatts, not sales. The risk is that it stays unprofitable and bitcoin-levered until the ramp, with one tenant carrying the story and $878M of debt against $471M of cash. … Show more
Riot Platforms has needlessly burned more investor capital than almost any bitcoin miner this cycle. It pursued a failed Bitfarms takeover, paid exorbitant executive compensation and bought $500M of bitcoin at $98k in December 2024 only to sell it between $60k and $70k. Per the quoted post, Riot sold 9,665 BTC in the first half of 2026 at an average price of $75,785. x.com x.comÂ
Riot Platforms' $9B, 20-year deal with Anthropic shows demand for AI compute is far from over. The contract is larger than Riot's entire $7.3B value, a direct rebuttal to bears claiming there is no demand. The AI buildout should run until 2028-2029, and free cash flow will arrive ahead of that. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Reduced perceived CoreWeave credit risk and a fully ramped lease would support a higher valuation for Galaxy Digital. A $50 share price in 18 months seems reasonable if the CoreWeave lease reaches $1B+ of EBITDA and the first phase of an 830MW lease to a new investment-grade tenant is online by mid-2028, adding $200M-$300M of EBITDA. Further leases and execution at other sites, a crypto bull market and recurring digital-asset licensing revenue could take it much higher. x.comÂ
Riot Platforms is being re-rated from bitcoin miner to AI infrastructure provider. AMD exercised its option to double contracted capacity at Riot's Rockdale site to 50 MW, a deal valued at $636 million, and Q1 revenue of $167.2M beat the $130M consensus, with $33.2M from data-center services. Needham and Macquarie are reclassifying it. Riot also offers high-beta bitcoin exposure, and ERCOT curtailment credits bring all-in power costs to $0.03/kWh, giving resilience at cycle bottoms. x.comÂ
Riot Platforms appears to be shifting toward compute and services rather than pure bitcoin mining, backed by improving financials. A major AI infrastructure investment signals confidence in compute-intensive workloads, and an expanding AMD partnership points to sustained demand for high-performance AI processors; together they suggest the shift. x.comÂ
Riot Platforms is setting up for a breakout as its AI pivot gains power and analyst support. A Terrestrial Energy MOU could provide up to 4GW of nuclear power, AMD doubled its deal to 50MW, and KBW, Clear Street and Jefferies have targets of $37-$38. Miners sold off together as crypto cooled, but Riot is in a falling wedge with buyers stepping in at the 200 EMA. A close above $22.33 opens targets at $24.15, $26.28 and $28.84. x.comÂ
CleanSpark's $2.28B in secured debt can fund its high-margin AI data-center hosting pivot without near-term share dilution. Its $6.6B, 20-year lease yields $330M annually in contracted revenue, and its Texas power pipeline offers up to 885 MW for hyperscale tenants. It holds roughly 13,000 Bitcoin; Wall Street consensus targets of $23.81 to $26 imply over 100% upside. x.comÂ
Some AI data-center developers may have to absorb higher financing costs because existing leases have fixed economics and tenants need not pay more. That could reduce equity returns even as compute demand grows. Scarce deliverable power, strong counterparties and favorable financing could instead make the best developers more valuable as marginal projects stall. Vertically integrated infrastructure landowners such as Cipher look attractive; today's prices may be the worst of the selloff. x.com … Show more
