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GrowthTurtle

Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma

4 Oct, 10:47Latest

CoreWeave keeps winning the next GPU allocation as the scaled independent cloud that gets the first racks of each new Nvidia generation. With hyperscalers feeding their own models first and Nebius still scaling, it holds $104B of contracted backlog; latest-quarter revenue grew 112% at a 67% gross margin, at 12.6x EV/sales. The risk is that its top two customers were 65% of Q1 revenue under 'up to' contracts and heavy debt funds the build, so backlog must become cash before debt comes due. x.com

CRWV

1 Oct, 00:55

CoreWeave sells powered, liquid-cooled GPU capacity that is sold out years ahead, on committed contracts rather than by the hour. Grid interconnects and Nvidia allocation take years to secure, so new supply arrives slowly while AI demand compounds. Backlog topped $125B, quarterly revenue grew 112% and gross margin is 67%; at 12.4x EV/sales the growth is priced in. Risks are top-two customers at 65% of Q1 revenue, cash burn, debt-funded megawatts and Meta's in-house build. x.com

CRWV

Rittenhouse Research

AI Infrastructure, Data Centers, Neoclouds, Software & Fintech Research

23 Oct

CRWV

Rising GPU rental rates and Anthropic's compute margins challenge claims of collapsing demand for CoreWeave's capacity. The WSJ reported Anthropic's first-half revenue of $16.3B against $9B in compute and infrastructure spending; Bloomberg reported its Q3 compute margin above 40%. Long contracts and fully amortizing loans cushion demand declines but cap upside. Despite the challenging neocloud model, CoreWeave's risk/reward is by far the best and its quality well ahead of peers. x.com x.com … Show more

Just a Dude Who Invests

Retail Investor, Economics & Technology Commentary

18 Oct

CRWV

CoreWeave's growing backlog, active power and GPU pricing make its declining shares look cheaper, though debt and customer cancellations remain risks. Blossom reports backlog rose from $99B to $129.2B, active power from 1GW to 1.5GW and GPU-offering prices by 25%. Its debt burden remains a valid concern. Unusual Whales reports Microsoft pulled out of an Nscale deal, illustrating the risk of hyperscalers leaving neocloud contracts. x.com x.com x.com

Sergey

Growth Investor, Author of Compounding Your Wealth

26 Oct

HUT

CoreWeave's heavy debt and negative free cash flow heighten the risk that neocloud contract growth will not fund expansion. It has $104.2B in backlog against $35.6B in debt and negative $5.74B quarterly free cash flow; Nebius has over $40B in contracts but $5.7B quarterly capex and customer-concentration risk. DigitalOcean's diversified cloud model reduces reliance on debt-funded GPU expansion, while TeraWulf avoids direct GPU depreciation but faces capital-intensive construction. x.com

Stocker-Man

Long-Term Growth Investor & Swing Trader, Public Investing Journal

23h ago

NBIS

CRWV

Hyperscaler borrowing could raise Nebius and CoreWeave's financing costs as investors favor safer debt. Microsoft reportedly plans to borrow. Nebius has prepayments and cheaper funding; CoreWeave has more debt. Nebius is strongly preferred if credit tightens. If rates fall and CoreWeave turns its $104B backlog into revenue, EBITDA and cash flow, it could have significantly more upside. Google expects more third-party compute use in Q4; Microsoft cites delayed deliveries. x.com x.com x.com

Mitchell Martan

Investment Researcher for The Long Investor, Economics/Finance Background

15 Oct

CRWV

CoreWeave's falling financing costs make debt fears look overdone. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says its cost of capital is falling and strength rising, so Nvidia need not backstop it. CoreWeave is superior to Nebius: Oguz Erkan says its rates are falling as deployed capacity earns more, while Nebius's rise as it scales. Dan at DivesTech expects upcoming hyperscaler earnings to reinforce capex growth and says CoreWeave fears are overdone. x.com x.com x.com

Pegasus

Long/Short Equity Investor

25 Oct

NBIS

CRWV

IREN

Hardware suppliers and VC keep financing cash-hungry labs and neoclouds, making compute rental prices at CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN look artificially supported. Lab revenue growth is finally plateauing at 800% year over year after roughly tenfold equity gains across the stack over the last decade. The buildout is also crowding out the economy's appetite for debt. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

Chris

Engineer & Entrepreneur, Equity/Crypto Swing Trader, Macro & Trade Setups

26 Oct

CRWV

CoreWeave looks positioned to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of years of demand for GPU computing at scale. It should be one of the most important players in the AI infrastructure buildout, with Jensen Huang and Nvidia deeply tied to it. At $50 a share, its debt load is not a concern; the stock could look like one of the best buying opportunities by decade-end. x.com x.com

Gregory Bent

CFA, Equity Analyst, US & Canadian Markets, 30+ Years of Experience

26 Oct

HUT

Anthropic's customer spending and compute buildout show AI monetizing at scale, a bullish read-through for Nvidia, Broadcom, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Nebius, CoreWeave and Hut 8. Its IPO filing reports H1 revenue up 14-fold to $16.3B, 11,900+ customers spending $100K+ annually and 1,900+ spending $1M+, alongside $9B in H1 infrastructure spending and about $430B in future compute commitments. x.com

Audit The Herd

CPA, Corporate Finance Professional

15 Oct

CRWV

CoreWeave's leveraged GPU rentals make its financing loop vulnerable to higher rates or a slipped contract. Despite $2.5B+ quarterly revenue and $104B backlog, debt is $21-25B with up to $68B in potential future obligations, $35-39B planned 2026 capex and -$4.7B free cash flow last quarter. Nvidia's $2B equity investment funds purchases of Nvidia chips, and Nvidia backstops $6.3B of unsold capacity through 2032. Demand is pulled forward with debt; either trigger unwinds the loop. x.com

degentrading

Former TradFi Options Market Maker, Delegate at Lido DAO

28 Oct

NBIS

CRWV

Neoclouds can reprice higher only if financing constraints halt smaller rivals' buildouts, leaving CoreWeave and Nebius as survivors. CoreWeave CDS has seen its highs and its debt has repriced upward; a business that might fail in four years is different from one that must fail now. Ant's S-1 confirms that serving inference is extremely profitable. x.com

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