GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
SEALSQ looks cheap against its sales at $2.23, trading at 3x sales and 2x next year's, versus the 6x chipmakers usually get. That puts it 17% below a fair range of $2.69 to $3.43, and it only looks expensive above $3.95. The levels come from reported earnings and revenue estimates, not fundamental work. x.comÂ
SEALSQ is the high-risk, high-upside bet on post-quantum cryptography, a market made real by Trump's executive orders setting specific deadlines. There are many unknowns: whether it meets its certification schedule, whether a small company can win share against NXP and STMicroelectronics, and whether those larger players accelerate their own FIPS 140-3 certification. If things go right, the upside is large, as the world needs protection against Q-day. x.comÂ
Semiconductor gains will now have to come from earnings growth rather than multiple expansion, but NVIDIA at 19x forward earnings can still make money. Rising margins normally compress multiples because peak margins signal peak cycle; this cycle ran long and euphoric buying drove multiples up, so a correction was bound to happen. With capex growth projected to slow from 2028, semis growth will likely slow too, and the window to profit from buying chip stocks at 25x sales is closed. x.comÂ
Nvidia looks anomalously cheap among large semiconductor companies. It has the biggest market cap, the fastest growth and the cheapest valuation, and the market doesn't know what to do with that. x.comÂ
