Copper is heading toward a potential supply crunch as tariff fears tighten global supply just as AI data centers, renewables and power grids demand more of it than ever. Prices just hit a record $14,533 per ton. x.com 

A copper super-cycle is coming because demand is exploding while supply shrinks. S&P Global says supply will decline 7% between 2025 and 2040 while demand grows 50%, and Bloomberg expects demand to grow 40% by 2050, driven by the energy transition, the AI buildout and robots. No new supply is coming over the next decade. Per the Kobeissi Letter, copper futures have hit a record high, up 22% this year and over 70% since January 2025. x.com  x.com 

Copper will follow the AI trade lower, making it a good catch-up short. x.com 

Copper's rally is driven by grid buildout and AI-driven power demand pulling physical inventory tighter than the futures curve reflects. The move started well before anyone was pricing a Fed pivot; the rate story is the narrative people reach for after the fact, not the driver. x.com 

Copper is becoming the oil of the AI era because the energy transition, AI data centers and military rearmament are all hitting a supply curve locked by geology and time. Ore grades have fallen from 0.8% in 2000 to 0.46%, and new mines now take about 18 years to develop. Per S&P Global, mine output peaks in 2029, with a 2.2Mt concentrate deficit by 2032; the IEA sees mines meeting only about 70% of demand by 2035. Per CRU, data center copper demand rises from 260kt in 2025 to over 650kt by 2030. … Show more

Copper's rally is driven mainly by financial players rather than physical demand, making it unsustainable in the short term. Inventories keep rising against the shortage narrative, commercial hedgers are near multi-year shorts while CTAs hold multi-year highs, and China's credit impulse is deteriorating. The cycle and seasonality point to a peak in late August or early September, and a weekly rising wedge signals exhaustion. The long-term picture stays bullish after a reset into Q4 or Q1 2027. … Show more

Copper, aluminum, Freeport-McMoRan and Rio Tinto can climb to their 2008 supercycle highs, 4-5x current levels, as AI data centers and aerospace infrastructure such as SpaceX drive a capex cycle rivaling the 2000s China buildout, a Hugh Hendry call from his George Gammon interview. Per Hendry, aluminum is mispriced: no one can earn a competitive return on a new North American smelter at spot, so prices must multiply to fund the capacity US supply-chain decoupling needs. Accumulate on breakouts. … Show more

Copper, along with gold and silver, has been building tremendous underlying strength while everyone hated metals and focused on semiconductors. Metals did not make new lows during the last ten weeks of neglect, and industries can swing quickly from hated to loved. x.com 

Copper is not a bullish play, as it is arguably used more as a transitional tool over the next two years. That holds even though NVIDIA's CEO said they will need more copper, alongside optics and CPO. x.com 

Copper hit its highest recorded price in August, and supply cannot answer quickly because a new mine takes twelve to fifteen years, if drilling, permits and governments cooperate. The investment case is the gap between demand rising from about 28M tonnes today to 42M by 2040 and supply stalling around 2030. Two of the four demand engines, the AI build-out and electrification, also drive the tech trade, so bulls on data centres cannot be indifferent to the metal that wires them. x.com  x.com