GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
Allegiant Travel looks cheap against its forward earnings. It trades at about 8x next year's earnings, versus the roughly 19x airlines usually get, implying fair value of about $166-212, or 19x next year's $9.94 forecast EPS, give or take 12%. The view relies heavily on that forecast, which is 750% above trailing earnings, and is based on valuation levels only, not fundamental work. x.com
Airline stocks are a no-brainer long as Delta Air Lines lifts off its 10-month EMA on the monthly chart despite oil and rate pressures. x.com
Booking Holdings is a great business at a nice discount and one of the best ways to play an end to the war and the reopening of the Middle East, as @vijaythirumalai argues. It is a best-in-class asset-light travel business trading at about 16x earnings with roughly 15% EPS growth and a near-10% free cash flow yield, with limited AI disruption risk, unlike Uber with autonomy. The war has created some overhang. Lower prices would be even better for the long term. x.com
