Jimmy Investor
Former Equity Analyst
T-Mobile's discount to the Street's lowest target could make it a good trade despite the long-term competition risk. The stock trades 14% below that $169 target, offering a valuation-based counterpoint to the concern that even marginal competition could be disastrous. x.comÂ
Zeta Global, Alphabet, MGM, Robinhood, Lyft, Uber, Owlet, SoFi, Hims & Hers and Zillow should eventually be rewarded, because stock returns follow revenue growth over time. In 2026 the gap has run the other way: the top 10 holdings in the Asymmetric Portfolio averaged 24.0% revenue growth but a 10.3% average decline. x.comÂ
Debt, costly spectrum auctions and bad capital allocation make AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile long-term laggards. They may rebound, but cannot keep pace with the S&P 500 or even weaker safety stocks. T-Mobile's Sprint-led growth is over with higher leverage; AT&T cut its dividend and spent heavily on Warner, while Verizon flip-flopped on fiber. High yields do not compensate. If forced to choose, AST SpaceMobile is probably the better gamble since legacy carriers have more incentive to support it. … Show more
T-Mobile faces a serious threat from Starlink Mobile picking off customers and capping shareholder returns, even if it cannot overtake the business. T-Mobile's CEO says the Starlink Mobile threat has been exaggerated. x.comÂ
Starlink Mobile threatens US carriers' pricing economics even if it takes little market share. AT&T's lack of investment for the future makes its exposure worse. In Peter Adderton's scenario, a $5 monthly price cut on 250 million remaining connections would cost carriers $15 billion a year. x.com x.comÂ
T-Mobile is now just another debt bomb like AT&T and Verizon; the time to get in was the Sprint integration. As @gdmtalkss notes, it looks cheap only on the equity stub, and including its $88.6B debt load in enterprise value makes the multiple far less special. x.comÂ
SpaceX could need cell towers as a customer, turning Starlink's feared disruption into potential rent for tower REITs. Crown Castle, SBA Communications and American Tower could gain a tenant, while T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon face a new competitor. x.comÂ
T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon look vulnerable to Starlink's prospective entry as a mobile carrier: the incumbents have grown complacent and milked customers for too long. Starlink should disrupt them, favoring SpaceX. x.comÂ