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Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management
Starlink Mobile threatens US carriers' pricing economics even if it takes little market share. AT&T's lack of investment for the future makes its exposure worse. In Peter Adderton's scenario, a $5 monthly price cut on 250 million remaining connections would cost carriers $15 billion a year. x.com x.comÂ
T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon look vulnerable to Starlink's prospective entry as a mobile carrier: the incumbents have grown complacent and milked customers for too long. Starlink should disrupt them, favoring SpaceX. x.comÂ
T-Mobile's discount to the Street's lowest target could make it a good trade despite the long-term competition risk. The stock trades 14% below that $169 target, offering a valuation-based counterpoint to the concern that even marginal competition could be disastrous. x.comÂ
SpaceX's negative cost of capital gives it an advantage over AT&T and Verizon as it enters mobile telecom; neither incumbent has that funding position. x.comÂ
AT&T faces downside risk from Starlink coming for cell plans; that competition looks set to leave a mark on the stock. x.comÂ
T-Mobile's operating-income growth has far outpaced its stock, which could make the share-price lag an overreaction. Fiscal.ai reports operating income up 114% over five years while the stock fell 1%. x.comÂ
Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile look finished now that SpaceX is acquiring a spectrum license to become a major US mobile carrier. Per The Kobeissi Letter, Verizon stock fell 7% on the news. x.comÂ
SpaceX buying Grain's spectrum is not bullish for AST SpaceMobile, with only secondary angles that read positively. SpaceX has spent roughly $26 billion on spectrum, so AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile should spend to defend their moat instead of downplaying Musk; letting Grain buy spectrum only to flip it to SpaceX likely ranks among the most self-destructive management moves ever. AST's change-of-control filing came at an unusual time, likely ahead of this news, suggesting more than housekeeping. … Show more
Verizon and AT&T face pressure as Starlink enters mobile service: Musk's entry into their market should make it harder for incumbents to retain share. x.comÂ
T-Mobile faces a serious threat from Starlink Mobile picking off customers and capping shareholder returns, even if it cannot overtake the business. T-Mobile's CEO says the Starlink Mobile threat has been exaggerated. x.comÂ