Steven Fiorillo
Seeking Alpha Analyst, Basis Point Podcast Co-Host
Ondas's new Regna AI venture could make its acquired defense systems work together more effectively by putting mission-trained AI directly on drones, balloons, robots and vessels, even without connectivity. Built on Palantir AIP with Palantir engineering support, it extends SkyWeaver; Ondas is the first customer. Outside customer wins and expanding software spend remain the test. If they materialize, recurring software could make the short case harder to defend. x.com
Ondas's integrated drones, sensing and ground systems could be worth dramatically more together over the next five years. Its Mistral acquisition gives it prime contractor access to U.S. Army and Special Operations contract vehicles, and pro forma backlog is $757 million. The bet depends on organic growth, orders converting into deliveries and cash, and earning power per share outpacing dilution. A recurring software business alongside Palantir could strengthen the economics. x.com
Jan Zuazo Pfingsten
Thematic Investor, Physical Scarcity & AI Infrastructure, Primary-Source Research
Regna is the first credible answer to the biggest question for Ondas: whether roughly 19 acquisitions can operate as one system. Its AI layer spans drones, balloons and ground robots even when communications are jammed; Ondas wholly owns it. Terms are undisclosed, and a first external sovereign customer is the tell. The next print is November 16. x.com
The European Space Agency's selection of Rift Dynamics is fresh validation for Ondas's strategic drone investment. Ondas owns 10% of Rift, and American Robotics is the sole US distributor of its Wåsp FPV platform; the ESA's goal is ten minutes of reliable operation without GNSS, likely using Wåsp, though the platform is not confirmed. x.com
Ondas's premium purchase of distressed Airobotics and its later options award to former Airobotics chairman Ron Stern raise governance red flags. OurCrowd, where Stern was a partner, owned 19.6% of Airobotics. Ondas paid a 71% premium despite Airobotics warning it might not survive without financing. Stern received options equal to 3% of Ondas's outstanding shares, sold 2.68 million shares for $26.3 million in gross proceeds and resigned after 11 months. x.com x.com
Regna's rollout signals that Ondas's software integration is going well. A struggling integration would not launch another company, though shareholders can only infer progress. Making Ondas a formidable system of systems matters more than dilution. Most buyers this year have a loss; mutual funds must finish loss selling by October 31. Markets also price in a Democratic sweep, bad for defense spending, especially on autonomous drones. Election pressure remains until after the midterms. x.com … Show more
Ondas' long-term opportunity extends beyond drones into growing counter-drone and unmanned ground vehicle markets. Broad industry estimates for these markets rise from $90.6B in 2025 to $210B by 2033, with counter-drone systems the fastest-growing segment at 26.8% annually. That total is neither Ondas revenue nor its own addressable market and may include overlap. Bullish on the company's future, but execution must earn conviction. x.com x.com
Ondas' strong Q2 orders still leave conversion as the open question. Over $40M in June orders pushed Q2-to-date above $150M across counter-UAS, loitering munitions, ground systems and defense services, a spread that points to broad demand, and a UK MoD trial of Rotron SkyLance adds early validation in long-range strike. What matters is how much of the $150M+ becomes revenue, whether the flow holds next quarter, and whether the acquisitions integrate cleanly. x.com
Ondas is shifting from drone hardware toward higher-margin AI software and data services, which supports a re-rating. Its Cyberhawk unit renewed and deepened an exclusive three-year deal with SSE for power-grid drone inspections, expanding into offshore wind via its iHawk platform. Ondas bought defense tech firms Insignito, Ottopia Defense and Caribou Labs, and raised 2026 revenue guidance to $525–550M. Even so, its forward P/S trades at a discount to defense-tech peers. x.com
Ondas's dilution-funded acquisitions could build a vertically integrated autonomy and defense contractor worth more than the sum of its parts. After its shares rose about tenfold since 2023, Ondas raised capital and bought 12 companies, and now holds more cash than its entire market cap when it started. Dilution is not inherently bad; what matters is buying IP, customers, talent and capacity that synergize. Integration is hard and execution risk is real, but done well it produces synergy. x.com
Ondas's share-funded acquisitions look very risky without a strong core business to make them work. It has raised $1.8B selling shares, yet roughly $1.4B sits in cash and short-term investments. One customer provides 55% of revenue, and $252M plus $742M in stock spent on acquisitions has not produced big revenue; continued raises and management pay add to the concern. x.com
Palantir's reliance on pay-as-you-go service with refunds makes customer cancellations and sudden earnings declines or write-downs a serious risk as AI and high SaaS prices pressure the business. Its 10-Q warns of these risks. Anthropic can and will easily replace Palantir with an all-in-one platform under Democratic control of the legislative branches. x.com x.com
