Sterling Infrastructure's year-over-year backlog growth and CEC outlook strengthen its AI-campus case. At 18.5x forward adjusted EPS before earnings, the risk/reward looked attractive after management flagged softer Q3 awards and a possible sequential backlog decline. Results beat expectations: signed backlog reached $4.14B (+61% YoY), combined backlog $6.14B (+78%), and 2026 adjusted EPS guidance rose to $21.70-$21.96. CEC revenue could top $1B in 2026, with improving margins. x.com  x.com 

Sterling's CEC-heavy revenue mix appears to explain its consolidated margin decline rather than deteriorating CEC economics. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.6%, down about one percentage point as CEC made up more revenue, while CEC operating margin improved sequentially and year over year. Substantial organic growth and expanding work visibility made this a very strong operating report. The CEC acquisition's effect on the business remains worth watching. x.com 

Sterling Infrastructure looks like a bubble name carried along by the AI boom, at 17x book for a concrete company after a recent skyrocket. It has had three CFOs since 2024, the first lasting under nine months, and the current CFO stayed at his prior company, Orbital Infrastructure, through its 2023 bankruptcy. It lacks institutional ownership despite going from micro cap to multibillion valuation. It may be nothing, but it is not one to back. x.com 

Sterling Infrastructure is the best-of-breed data center builder and contractor, with EMCOR a close second. Investor's Business Daily named it Stock of the Day; the stock gapped up powerfully on earnings and is retesting its top, a great place to buy. x.com 

Electrical work is preferable to Dycom's communications-heavy business because it is non-discretionary while carriers delay spending they cannot afford. IES Holdings and Sterling Infrastructure look like better ways to play the data-center scare than neoclouds. Upcoming spectrum auctions may absorb carrier budgets, though Dycom might benefit from the carriers-versus-SpaceX narrative. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Sterling Infrastructure won't work at about 3x its $1.5 billion annual order run-rate. x.com 

Record data-center construction supports Sterling Infrastructure, Quanta Services, Comfort Systems USA, Vertiv and Argan. Per The Kobeissi Letter, US data-center construction spending jumped 46% YoY in June to a record $68 billion annualized rate, up 158% since January 2024, and now exceeds office construction by a record $25 billion. Kobeissi calls AI the driver of the biggest investment wave in US history. x.com 

Some AI data-center developers may have to absorb higher financing costs because existing leases have fixed economics and tenants need not pay more. That could reduce equity returns even as compute demand grows. Scarce deliverable power, strong counterparties and favorable financing could instead make the best developers more valuable as marginal projects stall. Vertically integrated infrastructure landowners such as Cipher look attractive; today's prices may be the worst of the selloff. x.com  … Show more

AI infrastructure names such as Vertiv, Bloom Energy and Sterling are an attractive, asymmetric short because slowing data-center builds should slow their order growth. Semis are historically overbought, a $200 billion company jumped 40% on its CEO calling it undervalued, companies may start rationalizing AI spend, Anthropic's revenue acceleration could slow, and a $1.5 trillion space IPO looms. Any waning momentum could cause severe unraveling. This is a high-conviction playbook into September. … Show more

EnerSys looks mispriced at about 15x forward earnings versus 23-31x for electrical equipment peers like nVent, Eaton and Hubbell riding the same AI power demand. It has beaten earnings 10 straight times, generated about $717M of free cash flow in 12 months, a near 10% yield, and lifted gross margin over 500 bps to 33.5%. Data center orders rose over 80% and defense revenue 24%. A third of adjusted earnings comes from a US tax credit that phases down after 2030; forklift batteries remain soft. … Show more