Mike
Investor, Creator of HiddenSmallCaps
Enovix's initial drone-battery order and $216 million drone, defense and industrial pipeline underpin the bullish setup. A dual-use drone maker ordered 100,000 batteries for delivery in the first half of 2027, with follow-on orders expected afterward. Early Q3 revenue rose 38% to $11 million and beat guidance. Friday's call volume was about twice normal; the rounding-bottom setup favors a breakout if shares reclaim and hold $2.97, with targets of $3.59, $4.17 and $5.00. x.comÂ
AeroVironment is a long-term buy on weakness because its counter-drone and directed-energy position keeps strengthening while the chart stays depressed. It won a $464.8M US Army LOCUST contract, its first US production contract for high-energy lasers, plus a >$50M international order, and is one of four systems in the US counter-drone directed-energy pilot ahead of a December shoot-off. The stock has built a $135-150 range for three months with improving MFI, a potential bullish divergence. … Show more
AeroVironment is expensive against its earnings at 45x, versus the 24x aerospace and defense suppliers usually get. Fair value sits at $93.02 to $118.39, or 24x next year's $4.40 EPS give or take 12%, leaving the $196.02 price 66% above the high end, and even that leans on forward earnings 47% above trailing. The call rests on valuation levels from reported earnings and estimates only, not fundamental work. x.comÂ
Aevex Aerospace isn't cheap just because its EV/revenue or price-to-sales multiples look reasonable next to AeroVironment and Kratos. A dollar of Aevex revenue is not worth the same, as those two have much more sophisticated technology, while Aevex focuses on low-cost drones, an even more competitive market. It is worth considering only once people stop talking about it. x.comÂ
AeroVironment looks like a great dip buy because it has fallen back to $144 for no company-specific reason, only a selloff in defense names. It smashed earnings, jumped to $170 the next day and reached $190 after new contracts. Around $137 it would be back where it traded before that earnings report. x.comÂ
AeroVironment's 23% rally looks unjustified because the company is again signaling unimpressive growth, with its FY27 revenue growth target below 10%. x.comÂ
Ondas Holdings' valuation is hard to justify, and its long-term risk/reward looks less favorable than AeroVironment or Kratos. Per @rzayev7895's read of the earnings, growth comes from acquisitions rather than organically, share count rose 200-300%, market cap roughly quadrupled, cash comes from stock sales, and most backlog arrived with acquired companies. Ondas is more than drones, with critical private networks, but that does not change the valuation view. x.com x.com x.comÂ
AeroVironment has plenty left in the tank if the macro holds up, after hitting two price targets this week. x.com x.comÂ
AeroVironment's latest print was solid but not full confirmation that profitability is on track. Revenue and EPS beat, funded backlog reached $1.5B and AxS grew 21%, validating demand, but SCDE fell 21% and EBITDA declined year over year. Even after the brutal defense selloff since Q1, whether the stock has bottomed is still unclear. x.comÂ
AeroVironment sits at major higher-timeframe support while sentiment is broadly negative, a contrarian setup into earnings the next day. AeroVironment also announced its first international LOCUST directed-energy order, worth over $50M. x.comÂ