Mike
Long-Term Investor, Technology & Crypto
Meta's AI-driven advertising and cheaper inference support a much higher valuation. Q1 revenue rose 33%, with ad impressions up 19% and average ad price up 12%; Advantage+ and Reels improve advertiser returns. AMD's customized Helios racks could lower inference costs and help scale AI products without destroying margins despite $125-145B of 2026 capex. Meta could triple from here; a 27-30x forward P/E is warranted versus 20-21x now. x.comÂ
Meta's ad engine is still growing, and its higher AI spending comes with a stronger revenue outlook. Revenue was $64.6B versus $63.4B expected, with $63.1B in ads; the Q4 guide midpoint of $74.5B beat $73.7B expected. Meta raised only the capex floor to $135B, leaving the $145B ceiling unchanged. The roughly $10B legal charge depressed reported EPS, not ads. Overweight, $1,004 target with 41% upside. x.com x.comÂ
Meta's core advertising business is significantly outgrowing its biggest competitors even before factoring in the newer businesses it is building. Q3 ad revenue rose 26% year over year, versus 10.6% at Alphabet and 10.9% at Amazon. Back at 19x forward earnings, Meta is the most undervalued Magnificent Seven stock. x.com x.comÂ
Meta's AI spending is weakening conversion of strong ad growth into profit and cash, making its valuation one to approach patiently, not chase. Revenue rose 26%, but operating profit excluding a legal settlement rose only about 11%; $34.9B in quarterly capex exceeded $32.8B in operating cash flow. AI has helped ads, though other factors contributed. One negative free-cash-flow quarter is not an operating failure, but depreciation could squeeze margins unless new revenue covers costs. x.comÂ
Meta's AI-driven ad revenue can justify sustained AI spending, arguably a bigger NVIDIA positive than its slight capex-guidance lift. Meta raised the low end of 2026 capex guidance from $130B to $135B, left the $145B ceiling unchanged and lifted the midpoint just 1.8%. Its goal of over 10x better Muse compute-cost efficiency over the next year complicates GPU-order growth even as total serving costs are expected to rise. Spending looks durable, not necessarily set for faster NVIDIA orders. x.comÂ
Meta's early AI monetization in its core business makes the long-term upside potentially far greater than the short-term pain from its planned $95B capital raise and possible dilution. Its fair value is $1,100, and the shares are worth holding for years despite short-term moves. If Meta monetizes the infrastructure, upside is massive; even if it does not, the assets still have value. x.comÂ
Meta looks unattractive because its fines, capital raises and AI capex make the math ugly. The stock could trade back to the $500s, while hyperscalers probably have to make those raises with equity down 15-25%. Muse looks like a fad and average users may not need AI agents, matching LogicalThesis's view. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Meta's valuation is compelling again because its operating-cash-flow multiple has fallen while revenue growth accelerated over the past year. It trades at 12x operating cash flow, close to 10x 2027 operating cash flow. Its unique position should make it one of the AI era's biggest winners, with Muse becoming its best asset in the long run. The equity raise's timing was unwelcome, but that is now behind it. x.comÂ
Meta's growth and earnings make its valuation appealing. It trades at 17x 2027 estimates with 17% EPS and 22% revenue growth. Its $140 billion EBITDA should make it worth more than Anthropic, which has none, though that comparison could be wrong. If distribution is king, Meta Muse could benefit from Meta's 3.64 billion daily active users, according to GuruFocus News. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Meta's hundreds-of-gigawatts compute ambition looks hard to justify against the revenue a much smaller build might support. If Anthropic can generate over $70B in annualized revenue on 3GW or less, including training, hundreds of gigawatts is not a serious figure. Earlier Muse monetization than in past product cycles also makes little sense without direct integration into ad recommendations or an immediate shift in user behavior. x.comÂ
Meta's revenue growth and above-consensus Q4 guidance keep its growth case strong. Q3 revenue rose 26.07% to $64.601B versus $63.373B expected, and adjusted EPS of $7.40 beat the $5.74 estimate. Q4 revenue guidance is $73B-$76B; its $74.5B midpoint exceeds Wall Street's $73.736B estimate, signaling continued growth into the final quarter of 2026. Long Meta. x.com x.com x.comÂ
