The Inflection Economy
Portfolio Managers at Logos LP
Netflix faces high costs to keep producing major hits, while live TV is expensive and competitive and viewing habits are changing rapidly. It remains a good business and the stock should eventually find support, but even after its decline it is not appealing at this level. x.comÂ
Netflix's slowing growth and weaker outlook make it unattractive for now. Revenue growth decelerated to 11.8%, U.S. TV viewing share fell 0.8 percentage points, advertising guidance was reduced 10%, and full-year free-cash-flow guidance was cut $500M, despite expanding operating margins and better subscriber retention. x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's improving engagement and record free-cash-flow yield make its continued stock decline look misplaced. Viewing hours rose 24% year over year; CEO Greg Peters said Q3 churn improved globally and in the US, beating forecasts. CFO Spence Neumann expects sustained double-digit revenue growth. x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's revenue growth keeps slowing, with little sign yet that the trend will reverse. Third-quarter growth fell to 11.8% from 13.4% in the prior quarter; profit beat mainly on expense timing, while slower product rollouts held back revenue guidance. Competition remains the main concern: Apple, Amazon and Alphabet can spend heavily on streaming without relying on their libraries for profit. Nothing in the report was alarmingly bad, but there is little to get excited about. x.comÂ
Netflix's earnings growth cannot keep relying on price increases or a one-time ad-tier rollout when future ad growth depends on impressions. The password-sharing crackdown, ad tier and repeated price hikes amid declining time spent signal a mature business; podcasts and live sports look like attempts to find another growth leg. There is no reason to own the stock beyond its discount to historical valuation, which it should command. x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's control of its own content keeps growth avenues open even as quality and popularity ebb and flow. Production is costly, but being able to make more is hugely underrated. YouTube pays creators more than double what Netflix spends; its content is not free. Ads need time to gain traction, with live sports where they should prove their worth. Solid earnings outweigh weak short-term guidance; Netflix should become one of Wall Street's hottest stocks again, with targets well into the $150s. … Show more
If Netflix's engagement keeps declining, it will be able to charge less over the long term even if reduced use has not stopped subscriptions yet. Netflix's discoverability is terrible; it keeps showing the same options. x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's six straight botched earnings reports undermine its stock. Its co-CEOs should go; shares are at a two-year low and down 60% since its involvement in the Paramount deal and acquisition. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's ad tier can improve its long-run economics while the stock prices in decline. It is the second most-watched platform on US TV behind YouTube; ad-tier members pay subscriptions and generate ad revenue, with room to improve fill and pricing. Revenue growth, margins and buybacks underpin an Overweight rating and $103 target, 46% upside at the preview price. The quarter was solid, but the soft Q4 guide and ad forecast cut from $3B to ~$2.7B are setbacks the author sees as fixable. x.com … Show more
Netflix's below-estimate revenue outlook, operating income and EPS leave the stock looking like dead money from here. It sees $13.44B in fourth-quarter revenue versus $13.51B expected; operating income was $3.50B versus $3.72B expected, and EPS was $0.67 versus $0.73. x.comÂ