M&M Lion Fund
Small-Fund Portfolio Manager Since 2023, IE Business School & Javeriana Background
GE Aerospace's premium valuation looks hard to justify as margin expansion slips to 2028. Services are guided to low-double-digit growth with flat margins in 2027, while faster-growing original equipment could keep overall margins flat. Roughly 10-12% revenue growth would imply about $1.2-1.3B operating profit growth, down from about $1.9B in 2026, against a 35-38x multiple. Q3 departures rose only 1%, with prolonged Brent above $100 a further near-term risk. x.comÂ
GE Vernova's 2030 earnings base has a floor that the equipment-cyclicality debate ignores, because every gigawatt shipped from its 116 GW backlog attaches a 20-plus-year service annuity. Free cash flow equal to roughly 20% of its market cap over four years is about a 5% annual yield, which alone justifies much of its premium multiple to the sector. x.comÂ
Curtiss-Wright, an aerospace, defense and commercial nuclear supplier, is expensive against its earnings. At $545.79 it trades at 38 times earnings and 32 times next year's, versus the roughly 24 times aerospace and defense suppliers usually get. Fair value is $361.97 to $460.69, 24 times next year's $17.14 per share give or take 12%, putting the stock 18% above the high end; it is expensive above $582.72. This is a valuation-only view based on reported earnings and estimates. x.comÂ
GE Aerospace's rising orders and higher 2026 free cash flow strengthen its growth case. Orders rose 49% overall and 58% in Commercial Engines & Services. That segment's revenue rose 21%, with services up 17% and equipment up 38%; defense rose 7%. Commercial Engines & Services margins were in line, with mix and inflation noted. x.comÂ
Honeywell's breakup should unlock value, because its ~17x blended EV/EBITDA is a conglomerate multiple on aerospace and automation businesses that deserve different valuations. Aerospace spins out with a 27% EBITDA margin, second only to TransDigm among peers, while automation is dragged down by the conglomerate wrapper. At peer-median multiples the parts are worth about $307 a share, roughly 39% above $221.50, with a $187 bear case and $439+ bull case. The June 3 aerospace investor day is key. … Show more
Howmet Aerospace is an obvious short because its valuation is insane for a cyclical industrial. Its oligopoly in turbine blades, where only three companies can produce at scale, is already well known and priced in at about 100x free cash flow. Even a bull case implies only a 2.7% free cash flow yield on 2030 numbers, far less attractive than Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia or Salesforce. x.com x.comÂ
GE Aerospace earns most of its money servicing a huge installed engine base, and record air traffic keeps that base turning. Engines sell at up to 70% off, while shop visits bring up to 70% of lifetime revenue; services were about 70% of 2025's $42B revenue, with a $210B backlog. At 43x earnings versus a 37x five-year average it is not cheap, a premium backed by the end of the conglomerate discount, margins and visibility. A correction would come only with a normal general market pullback. x.com … Show more
RTX pairs solid fundamentals with near-term share pressure, backed by sustained defense demand, a cash-rich aftermarket and a fading GTF engine problem. Geopolitical tension drives demand for air defense, radars and munitions as procurement shifts to long-term replenishment. Delayed Boeing and Airbus deliveries keep older fleets flying, lifting high-margin repair work at Collins and Pratt & Whitney. GTF remediation is on track, with aircraft on ground down about 15% and repair output up 23%. … Show more
GE Aerospace is getting a new life as a streamlined jet engine maker, and its chart pattern targets $390. x.comÂ
These twelve stocks could dominate the next era by meeting infrastructure and consumer demand. TSMC makes AI chips; Palo Alto Networks secures cloud; GE Aerospace earns engine-service revenue; IREN builds AI cloud; Broadcom supplies chips and networking; Intuitive Surgical sells surgical robots. Strategy offers bitcoin exposure; e.l.f. Beauty serves Gen Z; Robinhood expands finance; The Trade Desk serves advertisers; Walmart adds ads and memberships; Vistra powers AI data centers. x.com x.com … Show more
Heavy-asset, low-obsolescence businesses such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, Waste Management, Safran and GE Aerospace are where the next decade's wealth will be built, as AI turns code into a commodity. Their moats are physics, regulation and scarcity: pipelines, landfill permits and jet engine certification take permits, capital and decades to build, and cannot be replicated by a founder with a laptop and an API key. Software's asset-light story is over. x.comÂ
