Mitchell Martan
Investment Researcher for The Long Investor, Economics/Finance Background
Credo's near-total share of AI data-center cables and unchanged estimates make its lower multiple look like a fear-driven opportunity. Its stock went from 27x to 20x forward earnings while the supply chain building those systems guided 2027 revenue to double. Buyers this week will probably be very happy a year from now. x.comÂ
Credo was an easy buy because its share price was ridiculously low against estimated revenues, as a quick look at its last quarterly report showed despite the hate. @KawzInvests adds that the DustPhotonics deal removes the bear case that a shift to optical breaks Credo, giving it a silicon photonics portfolio from 400G to 1.6T with a 3.2T roadmap. x.comÂ
Credo was overpriced even with great earnings, and it is still a little pricey at $190. Per @wallstengine, revenue rose 114.7% to $479.0M, beating estimates, and Q2 guidance of $525M-$535M also topped expectations, yet the stock is down $112 from its high of a few months ago. Valuation matters, and $150-$170 would be a decent entry point. x.comÂ
Credo's repeatedly conservative guidance and quarterly beats suggest analysts understate next year's EBIT. It trades at 15x their estimate, but likely 12-13x next year's EBIT if management's guidance holds. Management has executed as well as almost any company in recent years, and the multiple could easily end up closer to 10x than 15x. x.comÂ
Credo's selloff looks way overdone after great results and guidance. It just grew revenue 115% with 68% gross margins and $1.4B of cash, and last quarter's GAAP net income was still $169M. Stock compensation and amortization run about $60M a quarter, roughly 12% of $479M revenue, and shrink as a share each time revenue doubles; even on GAAP earnings, a high-50s trailing multiple is covered by growth. Its acquisition should add future share and growth, with slightly lower margins in the interim. … Show more
Credo's results were underwhelming for a company that added $32 billion in market value in a few months, and shorts may punish the stock. Per @WisemanCap, fiscal Q4 EPS of $1.16 beat the $1.02 estimate and revenue of $437 million was just above estimates, while Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $465-476 million was roughly in line with the $464.7 million consensus. x.com x.comÂ
Credo could be at an optimal entry point after falling more than 25% in a week despite a good earnings report the market seemingly disliked. It provides critical AI infrastructure connectivity that moves data very fast between clusters, and is projected to grow extremely quickly for the next few years. x.comÂ
Credo's 45% drop from its high was about customer concentration and valuation, not demand, making it a great long-term buy. The latest quarter beat on revenue and guidance: revenue grew 115% to $479M, a seventh straight quarter of triple-digit growth, and management guided to more than 85% growth for the fiscal year. Optical revenue is targeted to pass $600M this year, on top of the AEC business five hyperscalers already buy. x.comÂ
Credo's 11% drop on its promotion to the Russell 1000 was index plumbing, but falling twice as much as chips exposed its fragility: at 33x sales with three customers making up 88% of revenue, it is vulnerable. Forced Russell 2000 selling met only a teaspoon of large-cap index buying. Holding $236 and reclaiming $241 targets a $252 gap fill; losing $231 means real sellers. The next print, around early September, decides it: falling concentration makes it a trade, 88% staying means fade the rip. … Show more
Credo is a steal at about 70 times forward free cash flow given how fast cash generation is growing, supporting a raised target of $280 by the end of 2027. Revenue is expected to grow more than 80% year over year, and free cash flow reached about $178 million this quarter, up over 225%, with a credible path to roughly $600 million a year. It has no debt and expanding profitability. Any after-hours weakness misses the point; what matters is where the stock will be next year. x.comÂ