Jason Luongo
Growth-Stock Options Trader, LEAPS & Income Strategies
Credo's 45% drop from its high was about customer concentration and valuation, not demand, making it a great long-term buy. The latest quarter beat on revenue and guidance: revenue grew 115% to $479M, a seventh straight quarter of triple-digit growth, and management guided to more than 85% growth for the fiscal year. Optical revenue is targeted to pass $600M this year, on top of the AEC business five hyperscalers already buy. x.comÂ
Credo's 20% post-earnings drop reflects margin and spending worries, not demand, which just accelerated. Revenue rose 115% to $479M, its seventh straight quarter of triple-digit growth, and next-quarter guidance of $525-535M topped the Street's $516M. The selloff came from gross margin slipping to 64.5% and spending doubling. The stock sits 47% below its 52-week high at 22x forward earnings for a company doubling revenue, with the AI networking buildout still compounding. x.comÂ
Credo's growth rides surging AI interconnect demand, and management expects revenue to grow more than 85% in FY27. F1Q27 revenue rose 115% to $479 million, EPS of $1.20 slightly beat, and F2Q27 guidance is $525-535 million. Active electrical cables remain the near-term engine as adoption broadens across hyperscalers and neoclouds; FY27 optical revenue is still expected above $600 million, though a higher optical mix dilutes gross margin. The $227 target rests on 20x FY28 EPS of $11.40. x.comÂ
Credo's near-total share of AI data-center cables and unchanged estimates make its lower multiple look like a fear-driven opportunity. Its stock went from 27x to 20x forward earnings while the supply chain building those systems guided 2027 revenue to double. Buyers this week will probably be very happy a year from now. x.comÂ
Credo is a trade rather than a long-term hold because co-packaged optics is the technology that closes the copper-to-optics gap its retimers and active electrical cables fill. If CPO ramps faster than expected in the 2027 architecture cycle, those products get designed out. That is not a 2026 problem, but it is why a decelerating hyper-growth chipmaker can't keep a 15x sales multiple forever. Customer concentration, which hit the stock before, adds risk, and Credo fits no AI endgame theme. x.com … Show more
Credo is worth buying on its post-earnings dip. x.comÂ
Credo is one of the cheapest AI growth stocks, trading around 26x forward earnings after a hard correction while revenue grew 115% to $479M and full-year growth is guided above 85%. Margin worries mostly reflect DustPhotonics amortization and stock comp; non-GAAP gross margin held near 68%. DustPhotonics adds a second engine in optics, with over $600M expected this year, and Credo's low-laser designs can ship through the laser shortage. One customer at about a third of revenue is the main risk. … Show more
Credo is buying its re-acceleration at a flat gross margin, and at 36 times forward earnings, growth without margin is worth less. Q2 revenue guidance of $525-535M topped the $514.7M consensus, but non-GAAP gross margin went 68.6%, 68.3%, 68.0% and is guided at 67-69% again, while the beat over estimates shrank from 41% to 0.8%. Three customers are 77% of revenue. Credo sells copper, and Marvell expects scale-up optics from 2027. A print above 69% on $530M would prove this too cautious. x.com … Show more
Credo's earnings dip is a second chance, because its pivot toward optical extends the interconnect story beyond 2025. The market focused on gross-margin guidance of 64-66% instead of 68.6%, but revenue tripled year over year to $1.34B, FY27 guidance calls for more than 80% growth, and optical products are expected to exceed $600M next year. x.comÂ
Credo's leading AEC position and vertical integration keep its optics thesis bullish despite SpaceX moving away from 1.6T AECs. That shift is a genuine risk, but xAI has been in Credo's AEC ecosystem the longest, which could support ZeroFlap optics and its telemetry software. Credo's VCSEL-based ALCs were still ramping toward 2027, giving it another route as customers move to transceivers. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Credo Technology's customer concentration is a hidden leverage risk investors underestimate. With four customers driving nearly all sales and two above 60%, Credo has little bargaining power if a hyperscaler demands lower prices, delays deployments, dual-sources or spends less, and any change could crush the stock. The AI boom hides this until growth normalizes. The business, economics and balance sheet are excellent and the valuation reasonable; much depends on how long the AI buildout lasts. … Show more
MaxLinear's planned 1.6T AEC entry is too distant to justify the scale of Credo's selloff. Credo still has an estimated 90%+ AEC share and relationships with five of six major hyperscalers; MaxLinear expects initial revenue only in 2027 and a more meaningful ramp in 2028. Competition bears watching, but the market looks to be overreacting and Credo is starting to look ridiculously cheap. x.com x.comÂ
