Nicholas Mugalli
Institutional TMT & Macro Research, AI/Semiconductors/Policy
Credo's 45% drop from its high was about customer concentration and valuation, not demand, making it a great long-term buy. The latest quarter beat on revenue and guidance: revenue grew 115% to $479M, a seventh straight quarter of triple-digit growth, and management guided to more than 85% growth for the fiscal year. Optical revenue is targeted to pass $600M this year, on top of the AEC business five hyperscalers already buy. x.comÂ
Credo's near-total share of AI data-center cables and unchanged estimates make its lower multiple look like a fear-driven opportunity. Its stock went from 27x to 20x forward earnings while the supply chain building those systems guided 2027 revenue to double. Buyers this week will probably be very happy a year from now. x.comÂ
Credo is a trade rather than a long-term hold because co-packaged optics is the technology that closes the copper-to-optics gap its retimers and active electrical cables fill. If CPO ramps faster than expected in the 2027 architecture cycle, those products get designed out. That is not a 2026 problem, but it is why a decelerating hyper-growth chipmaker can't keep a 15x sales multiple forever. Customer concentration, which hit the stock before, adds risk, and Credo fits no AI endgame theme. x.com … Show more
Credo's growth rides surging AI interconnect demand, and management expects revenue to grow more than 85% in FY27. F1Q27 revenue rose 115% to $479 million, EPS of $1.20 slightly beat, and F2Q27 guidance is $525-535 million. Active electrical cables remain the near-term engine as adoption broadens across hyperscalers and neoclouds; FY27 optical revenue is still expected above $600 million, though a higher optical mix dilutes gross margin. The $227 target rests on 20x FY28 EPS of $11.40. x.comÂ
Credo's earnings dip is a second chance, because its pivot toward optical extends the interconnect story beyond 2025. The market focused on gross-margin guidance of 64-66% instead of 68.6%, but revenue tripled year over year to $1.34B, FY27 guidance calls for more than 80% growth, and optical products are expected to exceed $600M next year. x.comÂ
Credo is buying its re-acceleration at a flat gross margin, and at 36 times forward earnings, growth without margin is worth less. Q2 revenue guidance of $525-535M topped the $514.7M consensus, but non-GAAP gross margin went 68.6%, 68.3%, 68.0% and is guided at 67-69% again, while the beat over estimates shrank from 41% to 0.8%. Three customers are 77% of revenue. Credo sells copper, and Marvell expects scale-up optics from 2027. A print above 69% on $530M would prove this too cautious. x.com … Show more
Credo's selloff on a raise reflects impatience, since its next growth leg is a fiscal 2028 story that begins in May 2027. It printed $479M, guided $525-535M and lifted full-year growth to more than 85%, yet sold off for a second straight print. CEO Bill Brennan called fiscal 2027 just a stepping stone for optics: OmniConnect, micro-LED cables and near-package optics turn on in fiscal 2028, when AECs step up to 1.6T. x.com x.comÂ
Credo was wrongly dismissed as a copper-era connectivity play, and analysts are finally recognizing its optical roadmap. Per @wallstengine, Evercore ISI initiated at Outperform with a $325 target, saying Credo will increasingly be seen as a broad copper and optical AI-connectivity play through optical DSPs, silicon photonics ICs, microLED cables and especially ZFOptics modules, taking the same systems approach as with AECs. The market had decimated it in late 2025 as a horse-and-buggy name. … Show more
Credo's upside looks capped as growth falls short of earlier expectations and large stock-based compensation, hidden behind GAAP financials, looks excessive. BofA cut its target to $275 from $340 and Evercore to $292 from $325 on deceleration worries, the 1.6T DSP is delayed, and operating cash flow fell to $90M. The stock is 43% off its high; at $164 it trades at 30-33x FY27 earnings and 13x forward sales, more reasonable but still not worth owning. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Credo is one of the cheapest AI growth stocks, trading around 26x forward earnings after a hard correction while revenue grew 115% to $479M and full-year growth is guided above 85%. Margin worries mostly reflect DustPhotonics amortization and stock comp; non-GAAP gross margin held near 68%. DustPhotonics adds a second engine in optics, with over $600M expected this year, and Credo's low-laser designs can ship through the laser shortage. One customer at about a third of revenue is the main risk. … Show more