Credo's results were underwhelming for a company that added $32 billion in market value in a few months, and shorts may punish the stock. Per @WisemanCap, fiscal Q4 EPS of $1.16 beat the $1.02 estimate and revenue of $437 million was just above estimates, while Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $465-476 million was roughly in line with the $464.7 million consensus. x.com  x.com 

Credo was overpriced even with great earnings, and it is still a little pricey at $190. Per @wallstengine, revenue rose 114.7% to $479.0M, beating estimates, and Q2 guidance of $525M-$535M also topped expectations, yet the stock is down $112 from its high of a few months ago. Valuation matters, and $150-$170 would be a decent entry point. x.com 

Credo's near-total share of AI data-center cables and unchanged estimates make its lower multiple look like a fear-driven opportunity. Its stock went from 27x to 20x forward earnings while the supply chain building those systems guided 2027 revenue to double. Buyers this week will probably be very happy a year from now. x.com 

Credo Technology's customer concentration is a hidden leverage risk investors underestimate. With four customers driving nearly all sales and two above 60%, Credo has little bargaining power if a hyperscaler demands lower prices, delays deployments, dual-sources or spends less, and any change could crush the stock. The AI boom hides this until growth normalizes. The business, economics and balance sheet are excellent and the valuation reasonable; much depends on how long the AI buildout lasts. … Show more

Credo is buying its re-acceleration at a flat gross margin, and at 36 times forward earnings, growth without margin is worth less. Q2 revenue guidance of $525-535M topped the $514.7M consensus, but non-GAAP gross margin went 68.6%, 68.3%, 68.0% and is guided at 67-69% again, while the beat over estimates shrank from 41% to 0.8%. Three customers are 77% of revenue. Credo sells copper, and Marvell expects scale-up optics from 2027. A print above 69% on $530M would prove this too cautious. x.com  … Show more

Credo's valuation is not absurd relative to its growth. The latest selloff is another overreaction. x.com  x.com 

Credo is a trade rather than a long-term hold because co-packaged optics is the technology that closes the copper-to-optics gap its retimers and active electrical cables fill. If CPO ramps faster than expected in the 2027 architecture cycle, those products get designed out. That is not a 2026 problem, but it is why a decelerating hyper-growth chipmaker can't keep a 15x sales multiple forever. Customer concentration, which hit the stock before, adds risk, and Credo fits no AI endgame theme. x.com  … Show more

CrowdStrike's growth is too slow to justify its valuation. Its forward P/E has climbed to about 190, while stock-based compensation exceeds operating earnings, so reported free cash flow margins do not show what the business actually earns. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Credo's post-earnings selloff is overdone, reflecting normalizing hypergrowth and first-quarter DustPhotonics costs rather than any demand break. Q1 revenue rose 115% to $479M, its seventh straight triple-digit quarter, Q2 guidance of $525-535M beat the Street, and FY27 optical revenue is targeted at $600M+ as optics outgrows AECs. Management sees thousands of dollars of Credo content per GPU. Risks include customer concentration, Broadcom and Marvell in optical DSPs, and new AEC rivals. x.com  … Show more

Credo's 11% drop on its promotion to the Russell 1000 was index plumbing, but falling twice as much as chips exposed its fragility: at 33x sales with three customers making up 88% of revenue, it is vulnerable. Forced Russell 2000 selling met only a teaspoon of large-cap index buying. Holding $236 and reclaiming $241 targets a $252 gap fill; losing $231 means real sellers. The next print, around early September, decides it: falling concentration makes it a trade, 88% staying means fade the rip. … Show more