Ophir Gottlieb
CEO of CMLviz, Former Options Market Maker
Anthropic's S-1 and @UncleAlpha007's claim that Microsoft is growing despite a 27% headcount cut have turned the near-term tech-equity view bullish. At least a tradable rally is expected; further upside depends on Iran developments and PCE. Stay nimble. x.com x.comÂ
Hyperscalers' forward P/E has contracted 20% even as estimates ramped, making it rare to see things get much worse. Rising GPU rents and new lows in availability make the AI fears a fade; hyperscalers should lead. The next two weeks will be gut-wrenching amid the OpenAI raise, Anthropic S-1, Fed, midterms and mutual-fund selling into year-end, but that is the time to buy. x.comÂ
Microsoft's position is the most crowded among the Magnificent Seven, and fund flows are against it as funds sell those stocks to reserve cash for Anthropic's IPO. It faded despite an excellent earnings report. x.comÂ
Alphabet's core Search growth is slowing while AI spending surges, making the selloff look deserved despite fast Cloud growth. Search growth fell from 19% to 17% to 12% over three quarters; Search now represents just under half of revenue. The stock could fall to $250, though Amazon is the preferred buy. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
QQQ's remaining earnings, macro and election hurdles set up one more dip to punish late chasers. The index looks good and is pricing in some good news today, but Amazon, Intel and SanDisk earnings plus PCE and GDP arrive tomorrow, followed by AMD earnings and elections Tuesday. Expect one more, probably modest, dip Wednesday or Thursday next week before November's upward seasonality takes effect. x.comÂ
Amazon's unusual long-term AWS guidance looks desperate and leaves its stock looking dead. @P_Remarks says Amazon normally avoids long-term guidance and speculates that its projection of over 40% AWS revenue growth in both 2027 and 2028 was a Hail Mary to offset a quarter weak relative to expectations. x.comÂ
Shorting cloud companies is the fastest way to burn money now, because every major provider is growing fast and has committed guidance in writing. Last quarter Nebius grew revenue 454% to $582M, CoreWeave 112% to $2.58B, Google Cloud 82%, Microsoft Azure 43% and Amazon's AWS 37% to $42.2B, its fastest in 18 quarters. A short like Michael Burry's reported Nebius position only works if they all walk back that guidance. x.comÂ
Microsoft and Amazon probably have an asymmetric earnings setup versus semiconductors because they may answer questions about returns on capital and future capex flexibility. They may also get positive feedback on open-weight model adoption, which hedges reliance on closed labs, while reiterating that AI data-center supply is tight. This assumes no blowout capex raises; the market is already trading the setup but often revisits the same headlines. x.comÂ
Microsoft's delivery delays are affecting earnings, making other sources of returns look safer now. x.comÂ
Semiconductor earnings have outpaced prices, making the selloff look more like forced positioning than a broken growth case. Since January 2025, the SOX rose about 114% while reconstructed forward earnings rose about 198%; the estimate is approximate. Hedge funds sold global tech at a greater-than-three-standard-deviation pace in October 5-16, a pattern seen near earlier lows, though another sharp flush could come before a reversal. x.comÂ