mon
Independent Analyst, High-Risk Small-Cap & Growth Investing
Ondas spent the past year acquiring companies nonstop, and those acquisitions now look set to win deals nonstop. Announced orders include $40M+ in autonomous defense on June 22, $6.9M from Australian Defence on July 20, $70M in autonomous defense on July 22, $50M+ from the U.S. Army on August 5 and $56M in precision strike on October 5, more than $220M in total. x.com
Ondas' growth is incredible, and its dilution funds acquisitions that should create more value than they cost per share. Q2 revenue hit a record $83.8 million, up 67% sequentially and over 13x year over year, with $175 million of new Q2 orders, $105 million more in Q3, a $757 million pro-forma backlog and $1.4 billion of cash and investments. 2026 guidance rose to $525-550 million. Over time, acquisitions should integrate and the focus should shift to profitability. x.com x.com
Ondas' long-term opportunity extends beyond drones into growing counter-drone and unmanned ground vehicle markets. Broad industry estimates for these markets rise from $90.6B in 2025 to $210B by 2033, with counter-drone systems the fastest-growing segment at 26.8% annually. That total is neither Ondas revenue nor its own addressable market and may include overlap. Bullish on the company's future, but execution must earn conviction. x.com x.com
Ondas's rally on recent Trump administration news is the market catching up after months of chopping between $9 and $11. It has signed deals almost biweekly through 2026, a backlog the market under-reacted to. Fundamentals are phenomenal and the team executes well. x.com x.com
Ondas is an interesting drone defense business priced for nearly everything going right. At a $4.64B market cap on $24M of trailing revenue, it trades near 200x sales, versus one to two times for profitable defense contractors. Even full FY26 guidance of $170-180M implies about 26x, a software multiple on a hardware business. Dilution was around 300% in 2025, and its acquisition roll-up depends on a high share price, risking more issuance at lower prices. This is not a call that Ondas fails. … Show more
New orders are strengthening Ondas's revenue visibility into 2027. It reported over $270M in orders since June 30, yet the stock is 56% below its high and down 39% this year, making it one of five names the market is seriously underestimating. x.com
Ondas Holdings is assembling a defense prime in public while its chart pulls back. Eight acquisitions in twelve months form a full kill chain across sensing, counter-drone protection, strike and AI battle management, and Mistral brings direct US Army and Special Operations contract vehicles. Q1 revenue rose tenfold; guidance is at least $390m, heading toward about $525m with DZYNE, versus $50.7m last year. Backlog is $457m versus $68m at year-end, with $1.48bn in cash and no long-term debt. … Show more
Ondas's share-funded acquisitions look very risky without a strong core business to make them work. It has raised $1.8B selling shares, yet roughly $1.4B sits in cash and short-term investments. One customer provides 55% of revenue, and $252M plus $742M in stock spent on acquisitions has not produced big revenue; continued raises and management pay add to the concern. x.com
Ondas is scaling fast in autonomous drones and counter-drone systems. Q2 revenue hit a record $83.8 million, more than 13x a year earlier, and 2026 guidance is $525–550 million. Pro forma backlog is $757 million, it has captured over $240 million under the Army's $982 million loitering-munitions IDIQ, and in September it bought five more defense tech businesses. x.com
Regna's rollout signals that Ondas's software integration is going well. A struggling integration would not launch another company, though shareholders can only infer progress. Making Ondas a formidable system of systems matters more than dilution. Most buyers this year have a loss; mutual funds must finish loss selling by October 31. Markets also price in a Democratic sweep, bad for defense spending, especially on autonomous drones. Election pressure remains until after the midterms. x.com … Show more
Ondas' strong Q2 orders still leave conversion as the open question. Over $40M in June orders pushed Q2-to-date above $150M across counter-UAS, loitering munitions, ground systems and defense services, a spread that points to broad demand, and a UK MoD trial of Rotron SkyLance adds early validation in long-range strike. What matters is how much of the $150M+ becomes revenue, whether the flow holds next quarter, and whether the acquisitions integrate cleanly. x.com
Better underwriting at Root, AI data demand at Innodata, defense breadth at Applied Aerospace & Defense, scaled voice AI at SoundHound, more organ access via TransMedics, profitable insurance at Lemonade, autonomous defense at Ondas and successful medicines at AbCellera could drive outsized growth. These eight smaller companies have a realistic path to 5x+ over 5-10 years if they execute on those opportunities. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
