Ondas could be rerated and double from here on its fundamentals and a new catalyst: the Trump administration is in talks to fund US drone companies, per the Wall Street Journal. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Ondas' long-term opportunity extends beyond drones into growing counter-drone and unmanned ground vehicle markets. Broad industry estimates for these markets rise from $90.6B in 2025 to $210B by 2033, with counter-drone systems the fastest-growing segment at 26.8% annually. That total is neither Ondas revenue nor its own addressable market and may include overlap. Bullish on the company's future, but execution must earn conviction. x.com  x.com 

Ondas is an interesting drone defense business priced for nearly everything going right. At a $4.64B market cap on $24M of trailing revenue, it trades near 200x sales, versus one to two times for profitable defense contractors. Even full FY26 guidance of $170-180M implies about 26x, a software multiple on a hardware business. Dilution was around 300% in 2025, and its acquisition roll-up depends on a high share price, risking more issuance at lower prices. This is not a call that Ondas fails. … Show more

Ondas spent the past year acquiring companies nonstop, and those acquisitions now look set to win deals nonstop. Announced orders include $40M+ in autonomous defense on June 22, $6.9M from Australian Defence on July 20, $70M in autonomous defense on July 22, $50M+ from the U.S. Army on August 5 and $56M in precision strike on October 5, more than $220M in total. x.com 

Ondas is uniquely positioned to bring drone and autonomous technology to market, and doubling its revenue forecast reinforces that. Per Ondas, it raised its 2026 revenue target more than 2x to at least $375M and holds about $1.5B in cash to accelerate scale and strategic growth. x.com 

Ondas' strategy of stapling robotics businesses onto a wireless company looks like growth through reckless acquisition with no organic products, and the stock may eventually go to zero once that strategy implodes. Per @TrendSpider, Ondas acquired Mistral, BIRD Aerosystems, Rotron Aerospace and INDO Earth Moving in just two weeks. x.com 

The European Space Agency's selection of Rift Dynamics is fresh validation for Ondas's strategic drone investment. Ondas owns 10% of Rift, and American Robotics is the sole US distributor of its Wåsp FPV platform; the ESA's goal is ten minutes of reliable operation without GNSS, likely using Wåsp, though the platform is not confirmed. x.com 

Ondas is being handpicked: government officials are directly signaling which companies to focus on. x.com 

Ondas's premium purchase of distressed Airobotics and its later options award to former Airobotics chairman Ron Stern raise governance red flags. OurCrowd, where Stern was a partner, owned 19.6% of Airobotics. Ondas paid a 71% premium despite Airobotics warning it might not survive without financing. Stern received options equal to 3% of Ondas's outstanding shares, sold 2.68 million shares for $26.3 million in gross proceeds and resigned after 11 months. x.com  x.com 

Ondas Holdings is a buy on news that the Trump administration is in talks to fund US drone companies, as reported by the Wall Street Journal and relayed by ZeroHedge. x.com