Heisenberg
Stock Chartist, Long/Short Ideas
Ondas' long-term opportunity extends beyond drones into growing counter-drone and unmanned ground vehicle markets. Broad industry estimates for these markets rise from $90.6B in 2025 to $210B by 2033, with counter-drone systems the fastest-growing segment at 26.8% annually. That total is neither Ondas revenue nor its own addressable market and may include overlap. Bullish on the company's future, but execution must earn conviction. x.com x.comÂ
Ondas is being handpicked: government officials are directly signaling which companies to focus on. x.comÂ
Ondas Holdings looks badly hurt by President Trump's 100% tariff on certain sizes of drones, as reported by @zerohedge. x.comÂ
Ondas Holdings is building the drone infrastructure for America's most critical industries, and its drone division holds FAA waivers and government contracts competitors cannot replicate. The drone economy is a multi-billion-dollar market in its earliest innings, and Ondas holds the keys to it, with a 2030 target of $80 or more from about $10 today. x.comÂ
Ondas could be rerated and double from here on its fundamentals and a new catalyst: the Trump administration is in talks to fund US drone companies, per the Wall Street Journal. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Ondas's share-funded acquisitions look very risky without a strong core business to make them work. It has raised $1.8B selling shares, yet roughly $1.4B sits in cash and short-term investments. One customer provides 55% of revenue, and $252M plus $742M in stock spent on acquisitions has not produced big revenue; continued raises and management pay add to the concern. x.comÂ
Ondas stands to benefit directly from Trump's new tariffs of up to 100% on foreign drones and parts, which protect US manufacturers from Chinese competition and encourage domestic production and spending. Ondas is a Florida-based maker of autonomous drones and defense systems. Shares are consolidating, with resistance at $10 and support at $8.60. x.comÂ
Ondas's rally on recent Trump administration news is the market catching up after months of chopping between $9 and $11. It has signed deals almost biweekly through 2026, a backlog the market under-reacted to. Fundamentals are phenomenal and the team executes well. x.com x.comÂ
Ondas Holdings' valuation is hard to justify, and its long-term risk/reward looks less favorable than AeroVironment or Kratos. Per @rzayev7895's read of the earnings, growth comes from acquisitions rather than organically, share count rose 200-300%, market cap roughly quadrupled, cash comes from stock sales, and most backlog arrived with acquired companies. Ondas is more than drones, with critical private networks, but that does not change the valuation view. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Drone and autonomy stocks are where government money is going next, as Trump pursues funding deals to boost domestic drone production. Dell is up over 50% since Trump said to buy it, and drone names could do the same once he announces picks. The list spans AeroVironment, Kratos, Red Cat, Ondas, Draganfly, Unusual Machines, Swarmer and Palladyne AI; counter-drone names DroneShield and L3Harris; and primes Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, Textron, General Dynamics and Boeing. x.com x.comÂ