Donald Dean
Economist & Technical Analyst, Fibonacci/Gamma Trading
Ondas stands to benefit directly from Trump's new tariffs of up to 100% on foreign drones and parts, which protect US manufacturers from Chinese competition and encourage domestic production and spending. Ondas is a Florida-based maker of autonomous drones and defense systems. Shares are consolidating, with resistance at $10 and support at $8.60. x.comÂ
President Trump's proclamation to strengthen US drone supply chains benefits US drone component suppliers like Unusual Machines and drone makers like Ondas and Red Cat. It imposes 100% tariffs on drones over 25 kg, certain parts for them, drone docking stations and some critical components, plus 25% tariffs on broader components. x.comÂ
Ondas Holdings is building the drone infrastructure for America's most critical industries, and its drone division holds FAA waivers and government contracts competitors cannot replicate. The drone economy is a multi-billion-dollar market in its earliest innings, and Ondas holds the keys to it, with a 2030 target of $80 or more from about $10 today. x.comÂ
Ondas Holdings looks badly hurt by President Trump's 100% tariff on certain sizes of drones, as reported by @zerohedge. x.comÂ
Trump's 100% tariffs on foreign-made drones should send demand soaring for US drone makers and suppliers. AeroVironment has a $1.2B funded backlog; Kratos has a $2.1B backlog and jet drones with no foreign substitute; Ondas, the fastest grower, posted a record $83.8M quarter. Red Cat's Black Widow is an Army program of record, Unusual Machines makes 15,000 NDAA-compliant motors a month, AIRO has a $163M drone backlog and LightPath's US-made infrared optics become the default. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
The Trump administration's tariffs of up to 100% on foreign-made drones are bullish for American drone makers. Unusual Machines counts Donald Trump Jr. as an investor and adviser, and Ondas Holdings owns a company called American Robotics, making both obvious beneficiaries. x.comÂ
Ondas Holdings' valuation is hard to justify, and its long-term risk/reward looks less favorable than AeroVironment or Kratos. Per @rzayev7895's read of the earnings, growth comes from acquisitions rather than organically, share count rose 200-300%, market cap roughly quadrupled, cash comes from stock sales, and most backlog arrived with acquired companies. Ondas is more than drones, with critical private networks, but that does not change the valuation view. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Ondas' long-term opportunity extends beyond drones into growing counter-drone and unmanned ground vehicle markets. Broad industry estimates for these markets rise from $90.6B in 2025 to $210B by 2033, with counter-drone systems the fastest-growing segment at 26.8% annually. That total is neither Ondas revenue nor its own addressable market and may include overlap. Bullish on the company's future, but execution must earn conviction. x.com x.comÂ
Ondas is being handpicked: government officials are directly signaling which companies to focus on. x.comÂ
Ondas's dilution-funded acquisitions could build a vertically integrated autonomy and defense contractor worth more than the sum of its parts. After its shares rose about tenfold since 2023, Ondas raised capital and bought 12 companies, and now holds more cash than its entire market cap when it started. Dilution is not inherently bad; what matters is buying IP, customers, talent and capacity that synergize. Integration is hard and execution risk is real, but done well it produces synergy. x.comÂ
Ondas Holdings is a buy on news that the Trump administration is in talks to fund US drone companies, as reported by the Wall Street Journal and relayed by ZeroHedge. x.comÂ
