Applied Materials' larger stake in BE Semiconductor points to long-term hybrid-bonding potential despite delayed adoption in HBM. Applied agreed to raise its BESI holding from 9% to about 20%; HBM adoption timelines may not reflect the prospects for the technology as a whole. x.com  x.com 

BE Semiconductor Industries makes hybrid bonding equipment, a critical technology for 3D stacking of HBM4 memory and AI chiplets. It is a top 1% stock globally by combined business and share-price growth, showing European semiconductors are not just ASML. Revenue is forecast to grow 46% this year, with gross margins above 63%, well above peers. ASML patterns the wafers while BESI assembles and packages the finished chips, and being much smaller gives BESI more room for percentage growth. x.com 

ASMPT should outperform BE Semiconductor over the next two years because hybrid bonding for HBM has slipped toward 2028, keeping older bonding in use longer. At Hot Chips 2026, SK hynix signaled it will extend MR-MUF through 16-high HBM4; per Yole, wafer-to-wafer hybrid bonding arrives around 2028. ASMPT specializes in the conventional bonding that is sticking around; BESI loses its main near-term driver. BESI is no slam-dunk short, since Intel's Diamond Rapids uses hybrid bonding in chiplets. … Show more

Per FTR Investors, Applied Materials' larger stake strengthens BE Semiconductor's partnership in hybrid bonding and advanced AI chip packaging, supporting a bullish view. Applied Materials is increasing its stake from 9% to about 20%. x.com 

Logic folding could create more hybrid-bonding demand for BE Semiconductor than shorter HBM stacks take away. Customers are requesting four- or six-die stacks because HBM is expensive; fewer layers need fewer bonding steps and fit packages more easily with conventional solder, weakening the near-term HBM opportunity. Vertically stacked logic still needs exceptional alignment as it shortens signal paths and cuts energy use. x.com 

BESI should see a huge hybrid bonding order wave, especially from HBM4E and HBM5 roadmaps, and its price is compelling after the July selloff. x.com 

Besi's business and share price are diverging as hybrid bonding adoption broadens. Hybrid bonding customers rose from 15 to 21 this year across logic, memory, optics and consumer uses, and orders more than doubled last quarter, yet the stock is about 30% below its June high. The caveat, per management, is that the second half decides which memory uses adopt hybrid bonding, so buyers pay a full multiple first. A sequential order decline without a clear one-off explanation would prove it wrong. … Show more

Hanmi Semiconductor combines strong structural positioning with positive sensitivity to hybrid-bonding delays, backed by real TC bonder orders, and it just won a packaging equipment order for Elon Musk's Terafab. SK hynix said at Hot Chips on August 23 that it stays on the existing bonding method through HBM4E, with hybrid bonding starting at 20-high, opening a window of close to three years for delay beneficiaries. x.com 

ASML, TSMC and BE Semiconductor are the safer, easier-to-understand way to own AI because they sit in the industrial part of the chain. The big question in AI is timing, which no one can call, and Nvidia's software moat is impossible to understand or trust with confidence. A quoted post notes that Crésus sold Nvidia, expecting faster AI progress to favor the owners of models and factories over chip designers. x.com 

Tower Semiconductor's stronger-than-expected capacity expansion lets it fill more optical-chip orders itself, reducing customers' incentive to move to foundries they regard as technologically weaker. Its hybrid bonding packs dense connections between photonic chips and their driver electronics, an advantage viewed as effectively unmatched among Western suppliers. Tower remains one of the highest-conviction holdings despite the portfolio trim. x.com