Photon Capital
Photonics & Semiconductor Research
Besi's expanded partnership with Applied Materials positions it as a key process enabler in advanced packaging for AI accelerators and HBM. The joint R&D now reaches beyond hybrid bonding to die-to-wafer hybrid bonding, thermal compression bonding and co-packaged optics interconnects as one integrated process flow. Applied plans to invest up to $5 billion in its Silicon Valley EPIC Center in stages, where Besi engineers will optimize the full packaging workflow. x.com
Per FTR Investors, Applied Materials' larger stake strengthens BE Semiconductor's partnership in hybrid bonding and advanced AI chip packaging, supporting a bullish view. Applied Materials is increasing its stake from 9% to about 20%. x.com
Logic folding could create more hybrid-bonding demand for BE Semiconductor than shorter HBM stacks take away. Customers are requesting four- or six-die stacks because HBM is expensive; fewer layers need fewer bonding steps and fit packages more easily with conventional solder, weakening the near-term HBM opportunity. Vertically stacked logic still needs exceptional alignment as it shortens signal paths and cuts energy use. x.com
ASMPT should outperform BE Semiconductor over the next two years because hybrid bonding for HBM has slipped toward 2028, keeping older bonding in use longer. At Hot Chips 2026, SK hynix signaled it will extend MR-MUF through 16-high HBM4; per Yole, wafer-to-wafer hybrid bonding arrives around 2028. ASMPT specializes in the conventional bonding that is sticking around; BESI loses its main near-term driver. BESI is no slam-dunk short, since Intel's Diamond Rapids uses hybrid bonding in chiplets. … Show more
BESI should see a huge hybrid bonding order wave, especially from HBM4E and HBM5 roadmaps, and its price is compelling after the July selloff. x.com
BE Semiconductor Industries is a good long on its supply-chain importance, as recent Lam Research and Applied Materials news validates how important hybrid bonding is to advanced packaging. Upside looks more limited, though; it is unlikely to rise 300% like names such as Applied Optoelectronics. x.com
Applied Materials gains if hybrid bonding becomes a commodity DRAM requirement, as it is the only widely ownable name on the short wafer-to-wafer bonder list. Per ZDNet Korea via @jukan05, Samsung moved its wafer-to-wafer bonded B1b onto its roadmap as D0a, its first sub-10nm DRAM. HBM is about 22% of DRAM wafer input this year per TrendForce; commodity adoption would address the other 78%. Samsung hasn't confirmed this. JEDEC lifting 20-high HBM to 900 microns would push this out. x.com
BE Semiconductor Industries makes hybrid bonding equipment, a critical technology for 3D stacking of HBM4 memory and AI chiplets. It is a top 1% stock globally by combined business and share-price growth, showing European semiconductors are not just ASML. Revenue is forecast to grow 46% this year, with gross margins above 63%, well above peers. ASML patterns the wafers while BESI assembles and packages the finished chips, and being much smaller gives BESI more room for percentage growth. x.com
Rack-scale AI pods need more wafers and advanced packaging, favoring Applied Materials' equipment portfolio. Applied's slides model two to four times as many wafers per agentic pod; the company says it leads HBM packaging process steps and expects over $2.4 billion in advanced-packaging revenue in 2026. Wiring uses about half of chip power, adding a need for equipment innovation. Applied's WFE share should grow; its optics opportunity depends on scale toward the end of the decade. x.com x.com … Show more
BE Semiconductor Industries is the global leader in hybrid bonding equipment and a buy. At its 2026 investor day, per @QQ_Timmy, it raised long-term targets to €1.7-2.2B of revenue and a 45-55% operating margin, from €1.5-1.9B and 40-55%. The CEO said market conditions and orders have improved markedly since Q2 2025 on demand for 2.5D AI data center and photonics applications and new hybrid bonding uses in logic, memory and co-packaged optics. x.com
Besi's business and share price are diverging as hybrid bonding adoption broadens. Hybrid bonding customers rose from 15 to 21 this year across logic, memory, optics and consumer uses, and orders more than doubled last quarter, yet the stock is about 30% below its June high. The caveat, per management, is that the second half decides which memory uses adopt hybrid bonding, so buyers pay a full multiple first. A sequential order decline without a clear one-off explanation would prove it wrong. … Show more