mon
Independent Analyst, High-Risk Small-Cap & Growth Investing
SoFi at $15 is a good setup and the easier stock to hold through volatility, because its numbers are already there: revenue grew 41%, members 35% and products 39%. It is hated by parts of the market yet scaling fast, and could look like an obvious buy in a year or two. CEO Anthony Noto buying over $1 million of stock into the weakness makes it easier to sit through dips, so it is the one to size up and hold rather than trade. x.comÂ
SoFi is a great buy after Muddy Waters' short report, which called it a financial engineering treadmill with GE Capital-style marks, Enron-esque off-balance-sheet structures and relentless dilution. The market has stopped taking such shorts seriously and the stock is already recovering, and CEO Anthony Noto bought $500,000 of stock on the dip. x.com x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's newly reported growth widens the gap between its operating results and a selloff driven by interest-rate fears. Revenue grew 45%, EPS 67% and members 35%, while the stock had fallen nearly 50%; the business is seen as able to succeed across rate environments. x.comÂ
SoFi's stronger revenue and earnings growth makes it worth staying with for at least another quarter. Per amitisinvesting, Q3 revenue rose 44% and adjusted EPS 64%, with 2027 revenue and EPS guidance above estimates. It still needs to show it can sustain the trajectory. x.com x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's egregious dilution means business growth may fail to benefit existing shareholders. Its share count rose 61% over five years, reducing an original 1% stake to about 0.6%; even 61% earnings growth could leave earnings per share flat. As a bank, SoFi is already practically uninvestable by these standards, though dilution need not destroy value if the capital raised creates more value than the ownership surrendered. x.comÂ
SoFi's member and revenue growth now comes with rising profitability, strengthening its growth case. Q3 revenue grew 44% year over year to $1.39 billion, members rose 35% to 17.1 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew nearly 70%. Revenue and EPS beat estimates, and full-year adjusted net revenue guidance rose to about $5.04 billion. x.comÂ
SoFi's Q3 growth and raised outlook deepen the gap between its business and pressured shares. Adjusted revenue rose 44% to $1.4B, EBITDA 70% to $470M and members 35% to 17.1M; 2026 guidance rose to $5.04B, with a new 2027 outlook of $6.4B and $0.90 EPS. By far one of the strongest reports amid poor sentiment, this makes SoFi one of the best long-term opportunities. SoFi says eight businesses each generate over $100M annualized and targets 100M products by 2030. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
SoFi has failed to grow or execute, making it a poor choice when better opportunities abound. Founded in 2011, it is worth $24B, while Anthropic, founded in 2021, is valued above $1T. The problem is not that banking is boring, as @TRDRZone suggested, but that SoFi does everything poorly. x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's accelerating products per member bodes well for its long-term growth. The attached series rises from about 1.45 in March 2024 to 1.56 in September 2026, with a sharper climb in 2026. x.comÂ
SoFi's expanding financial ecosystem now has eight businesses above $100 million in annualized revenue, a shift from its student-loan origins that makes its next decade incredibly bullish. Crypto products rose from 63,441 in Q4 2025 to 503,070 in Q3 2026, nearly 8x in three quarters. It is still early, but crypto could become another valuable piece of the ecosystem. x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood's higher revenue and EPS make it clearly stronger than SoFi on these earnings. SoFi's post-earnings rally is unlikely to hold; its shares are headed for single digits. x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's record Q3 member gains expand its cross-selling opportunity as deposits cut funding costs and fees diversify income. It added 1.2 million members; existing members opened 51% of new products. Adjusted revenue rose 44% and EBITDA rose 70%; deposits reached $51.3 billion, with estimated annualized funding savings of $745 million. Management's initial 2027 outlook calls for $0.90 in adjusted EPS, or 48% growth over updated 2026 guidance, but it still needs to be delivered. x.comÂ
