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Dr J Rould
Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background
SoFi's growth is not meeting expectations, and its once-hyped Tech Platform has effectively been given up on. Tech Platform revenue fell 23% year over year and its total accounts fell 16%, far from the "larger, more durable opportunities" touted in 2024. SoFi raised revenue guidance but not EPS or income guidance, implying less operating leverage. With JPMorgan seen as the best fintech, SoFi leads the list of fintech holdings to cut, though no move has been made yet. x.com x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's member and revenue growth now comes with rising profitability, strengthening its growth case. Q3 revenue grew 44% year over year to $1.39 billion, members rose 35% to 17.1 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew nearly 70%. Revenue and EPS beat estimates, and full-year adjusted net revenue guidance rose to about $5.04 billion. x.comÂ
SoFi's revenue growth, earnings beat and raised guidance suggest its inflection is starting. Revenue grew 44%, and its initial 2027 outlook topped consensus. x.comÂ
Robinhood's higher revenue and EPS make it clearly stronger than SoFi on these earnings. SoFi's post-earnings rally is unlikely to hold; its shares are headed for single digits. x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's raised profitability guidance will help its stock move past $20; a very big move will need interest rates to fall substantially. Management lifted 2026 adjusted EPS guidance 50%, from $0.60 to $0.90, and revenue guidance to $5.04B after Q3 revenue rose over 44% and adjusted EPS grew nearly 64% year over year. x.com x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's earnings growth and accelerating margin expansion make its valuation appealing. Quarterly GAAP EPS of $0.18 puts its annualized P/E at 22 alongside 64% year-on-year earnings growth. SoFi raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance from $0.40 to $0.61, roughly 50%, and projects adjusted revenue growth of 40% in 2026 and 27% in 2027, with adjusted EPS of $0.90 in 2027. x.com x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's egregious dilution means business growth may fail to benefit existing shareholders. Its share count rose 61% over five years, reducing an original 1% stake to about 0.6%; even 61% earnings growth could leave earnings per share flat. As a bank, SoFi is already practically uninvestable by these standards, though dilution need not destroy value if the capital raised creates more value than the ownership surrendered. x.comÂ
SoFi's fee growth and improving credit support its Q3 triple beat. Revenue was $1.39B vs $1.26B expected, EPS 18 cents vs 17, membership 17.1M, and guidance rose. Interchange fees grew 77% year on year, brokerage fees 47%; personal-loan net charge-offs fell to 2.26%. The guide assumes two more rate hikes this year; one looks plausible, not two, leaving upside. For 2027, it assumes four hikes and a couple more percentage points of tax. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's newly reported growth widens the gap between its operating results and a selloff driven by interest-rate fears. Revenue grew 45%, EPS 67% and members 35%, while the stock had fallen nearly 50%; the business is seen as able to succeed across rate environments. x.comÂ
SoFi's revenue growth does not justify overlooking its earnings record and valuation relative to American Express. SoFi trades at 34x earnings despite GAAP EPS of $0.47 TTM, versus American Express at 19x with $16.48 TTM EPS and a long record of EPS growth. SoFi faces competition while American Express has a moat. x.com x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's Q3 growth and raised outlook deepen the gap between its business and pressured shares. Adjusted revenue rose 44% to $1.4B, EBITDA 70% to $470M and members 35% to 17.1M; 2026 guidance rose to $5.04B, with a new 2027 outlook of $6.4B and $0.90 EPS. By far one of the strongest reports amid poor sentiment, this makes SoFi one of the best long-term opportunities. SoFi says eight businesses each generate over $100M annualized and targets 100M products by 2030. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ