Rose Celine Investments
Equity Investor
SoFi's egregious dilution means business growth may fail to benefit existing shareholders. Its share count rose 61% over five years, reducing an original 1% stake to about 0.6%; even 61% earnings growth could leave earnings per share flat. As a bank, SoFi is already practically uninvestable by these standards, though dilution need not destroy value if the capital raised creates more value than the ownership surrendered. x.com
SoFi is a bank, and most investors have no business owning banks because their biggest risks stay hidden until something breaks. Headline growth says little: a bank can grow by issuing shares and making loans without knowing what those loans will earn through a credit cycle, and ROE can be lifted by leverage. Loans can boost accounting earnings while growing riskier. What matters is per-share growth and whether returns justify the dilution and risk, often clear only years later. x.com x.com x.com
Robinhood's higher revenue and EPS make it clearly stronger than SoFi on these earnings. SoFi's post-earnings rally is unlikely to hold; its shares are headed for single digits. x.com x.com
SoFi's dilution and significant premium to book value versus banks and other financial institutions make it the holding to remove from the portfolio. x.com
SoFi's newly reported growth widens the gap between its operating results and a selloff driven by interest-rate fears. Revenue grew 45%, EPS 67% and members 35%, while the stock had fallen nearly 50%; the business is seen as able to succeed across rate environments. x.com
SoFi's revenue growth does not justify overlooking its earnings record and valuation relative to American Express. SoFi trades at 34x earnings despite GAAP EPS of $0.47 TTM, versus American Express at 19x with $16.48 TTM EPS and a long record of EPS growth. SoFi faces competition while American Express has a moat. x.com x.com x.com
SoFi's app is poor by the standards of modern financial-services apps, which makes the stock hard to justify owning right now. Investors should know a company's products before investing in it. x.com
SoFi's cross-selling is turning growth into faster profits, making its valuation more compelling than Robinhood's despite higher margins there. Q3 revenue rose 44% and adjusted EBITDA 70%; fee-based revenue reached 42% of sales. Management guides to $6.4B revenue and $2.24B adjusted EBITDA in 2027 without needing new capital for that plan, though future dilution is possible. Robinhood's 12.4x analyst-estimated 2027 sales is nearly four times SoFi's 3.3x on management guidance. SoFi must deliver. … Show more
SoFi has failed to grow or execute, making it a poor choice when better opportunities abound. Founded in 2011, it is worth $24B, while Anthropic, founded in 2021, is valued above $1T. The problem is not that banking is boring, as @TRDRZone suggested, but that SoFi does everything poorly. x.com x.com
SoFi is overvalued because it is just a bank, as it has been since inception. Member growth of 518% over five years while the stock fell 21%, cited by @StockSavvyShay, does not make it an opportunity, since the stock was extremely overvalued five years ago and subscriber growth does not justify the valuation. The fintech sector is trading poorly with little investor interest, so waiting means years of mediocre returns. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
SoFi's Q3 growth and raised outlook deepen the gap between its business and pressured shares. Adjusted revenue rose 44% to $1.4B, EBITDA 70% to $470M and members 35% to 17.1M; 2026 guidance rose to $5.04B, with a new 2027 outlook of $6.4B and $0.90 EPS. By far one of the strongest reports amid poor sentiment, this makes SoFi one of the best long-term opportunities. SoFi says eight businesses each generate over $100M annualized and targets 100M products by 2030. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Personal-loan economics and demand holding up despite interest rates should support Happen Bank's shares tomorrow. SoFi's good earnings provide the read-through. After rising two-year rates beat down Happen Bank's shares, a healthy personal-loan marketplace would offer asymmetric upside at 8x earnings with decent growth. x.com x.com
