SoFi's dilution and significant premium to book value versus banks and other financial institutions make it the holding to remove from the portfolio. x.comÂ
Mike
Long-Term Investor, Technology & Crypto
SoFi's egregious dilution means business growth may fail to benefit existing shareholders. Its share count rose 61% over five years, reducing an original 1% stake to about 0.6%; even 61% earnings growth could leave earnings per share flat. As a bank, SoFi is already practically uninvestable by these standards, though dilution need not destroy value if the capital raised creates more value than the ownership surrendered. x.comÂ
SoFi's CEO Anthony Noto is pitching a valuation the business does not justify. On a podcast he suggested SoFi should not trade at 2x tangible book or less, alluding to American Express's 5-6x peaks and JPMorgan's roughly 2.8x, yet no bank matches JPMorgan's size, scale and safety, and SoFi already trades near 2.25-2.3x. SoFi is second best or worse at everything and first at nothing, student loan refinancing is still a big slice, its credit card is uncompetitive, and savings are commoditized. … Show more
SoFi's newly reported growth widens the gap between its operating results and a selloff driven by interest-rate fears. Revenue grew 45%, EPS 67% and members 35%, while the stock had fallen nearly 50%; the business is seen as able to succeed across rate environments. x.comÂ
Robinhood's higher revenue and EPS make it clearly stronger than SoFi on these earnings. SoFi's post-earnings rally is unlikely to hold; its shares are headed for single digits. x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's app is poor by the standards of modern financial-services apps, which makes the stock hard to justify owning right now. Investors should know a company's products before investing in it. x.comÂ
SoFi's dilution bear case falls away because, according to the company, its current capital and organic capital generation are sufficient to fund planned growth in 2027. SoFi says its guidance requires no additional capital raise. x.comÂ
SoFi is overvalued because it is just a bank, as it has been since inception. Member growth of 518% over five years while the stock fell 21%, cited by @StockSavvyShay, does not make it an opportunity, since the stock was extremely overvalued five years ago and subscriber growth does not justify the valuation. The fintech sector is trading poorly with little investor interest, so waiting means years of mediocre returns. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
SoFi is not a special business, and its CEO's $1 trillion ambition is unrealistic: JPMorgan is worth $800B today, so SoFi reaching $1T would take inflation rendering dollars worthless. Its customers are insignificant, since nobody with money uses SoFi; people with money use real banks. The stock is not expensive and is fine to trade, but SoFi is a poor business. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's record Q3 member gains expand its cross-selling opportunity as deposits cut funding costs and fees diversify income. It added 1.2 million members; existing members opened 51% of new products. Adjusted revenue rose 44% and EBITDA rose 70%; deposits reached $51.3 billion, with estimated annualized funding savings of $745 million. Management's initial 2027 outlook calls for $0.90 in adjusted EPS, or 48% growth over updated 2026 guidance, but it still needs to be delivered. x.comÂ
SoFi has failed to grow or execute, making it a poor choice when better opportunities abound. Founded in 2011, it is worth $24B, while Anthropic, founded in 2021, is valued above $1T. The problem is not that banking is boring, as @TRDRZone suggested, but that SoFi does everything poorly. x.com x.comÂ