Salesforce looks vulnerable long term because users hate it and will happily switch to alternatives, while in the AI era users actually liking a product will be a key moat for SaaS stocks. Adobe showed this when users who hated it switched more easily to Figma. Present-day fundamentals look great across these companies, so the threat is still theoretical. x.com 

Salesforce might be dead as intelligence becomes an abundant commodity, though it can argue it has distribution. Claude, OpenAI and open-weight models such as Kimi, Qwen and DeepSeek are in a price fight to zero, so years of developer work no longer form a moat. The new moats are trust, distribution and data, especially data behind corporate firewalls, in hospitals or otherwise hard to get. x.com 

Salesforce's poor M&A is literally half the reason its multiple stays low. Slack and Informatica are cited as examples, with Braze raised as a question; AI making Tableau obsolete in a few years would be a separate risk, not itself poor M&A. x.com 

AI has erased engineering complexity as a SaaS moat, so software survives only with compliance or data lock-in. Tyler Technologies, Veeva and Guidewire are anchored in government, pharma and insurance rules, where leaving means a compliance audit; Veeva's revenue rose 16% while its stock fell 25%. Palantir's ontology locks in customer data. Salesforce, Workday, Adobe and ServiceNow are seat-based with neither moat, and BlackLine and nCino, though regulated, never went AI-native. x.com 

Little apps will be dirt cheap to build and run, arguably already are, making SaaS vendors easier to replace. The existential threat is greater than six months ago, and from a technical perspective the SaaS bear case is running ahead of schedule. Vendors that adapt have a massive opportunity, and some companies may be safe. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Bloomberg Intelligence sees fragmented enterprise-software markets as runway for large vendors to buy share, enter adjacent areas and strengthen AI, data and platforms. Serious software M&A is expected: Guidewire's $1.7B purchase of hyperexponential adds another deal after Salesforce's acquisition of Braze, which opened the gates. x.com  x.com 

FactSet risks having its app usage automated from outside and becoming unmonetizable as AI agents operate it directly. Its MCP integration was a huge advance and a growth driver, worth perhaps a 20% subscription uplift, but OpenAI's computer use worked well on a regular desktop session, if much slower, and simply noted the FactSet subscription to use when needed. SaaS bear points from earlier this year are materializing quickly. x.com  x.com 

Salesforce is exposed to AI-native rivals aiming to own the sale itself rather than build a better CRM. Upstarts such as Attio, Monaco and Rox can capture the decision traces behind closed deals, a learning loop Claude cannot rebuild from Salesforce's fields. Its schema is more tax than foundation: relationship-driven work like recruiting and VC does not fit it, and young startups cannot be served profitably. Its 150k customers won't churn soon, but new AI-native firms may never install it. … Show more

Software stocks probably have a floor as results challenge fears that AI agents will displace them. Since the June 22 momentum unwind, IGV is up 25% and the SOX index down 22%. Atlassian and Salesforce jumped on solid results, plus an Anthropic deal for Salesforce, and possible Silver Lake interest lifted Workday. A new bullish twist says agents will use software tools 10-100x more than humans. Whether fundamentals back the rally is still open; a likely Fed hike and weak September are risks. … Show more

AI is not killing software; it is killing the per-seat software model, which is why Salesforce, HubSpot, ServiceNow, Snowflake and Datadog are getting crushed. Companies will not keep paying for 100 Salesforce users, 50 HubSpot users and 30 ServiceNow users when five AI agents can do the same work around the clock. x.com