CK Capital
Defense/Space/Tech/Photonics Investor, Co-Owner of CV Research
The selloff in space stocks ahead of SpaceX's IPO is a temporary rotation, not a change in the businesses. Money left AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab and smaller names to chase SpaceX allocations, yet AST still has every major US carrier signed and satellites shipping, Rocket Lab is launching at record cadence and defense space budgets keep growing. Once SpaceX lists at a $1.75 trillion valuation, the attention it draws to space as a sector should bring the money back and then some. x.comÂ
SpaceX's IPO filing should re-rate the whole space sector, because it forces institutional investors to build a space allocation for the first time, and every name goes with it. AST SpaceMobile guides revenue from $70M in 2025 to $150-200M in 2026, nearing $1B in 2027 as full commercial service starts. Rocket Lab, the only credible public launch alternative, grew revenue 38% in 2025 with backlog up 73% to $1.85B. Planet Labs, the space data layer, has backlog up 216%. x.comÂ
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.comÂ
Investors rotating into cheaper stocks with more upside should ultimately benefit Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Both have already suffered major drawdowns. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's reliance on competitor SpaceX for satellite launches weakens its moat further. SpaceX has bought its own spectrum, raising competitive risk. Piper Sandler downgraded ASTS over the pace of 2026-27 launches and SpaceX's potential to limit launch availability or undercut service pricing, though the bank remains constructive beyond 2027. x.comÂ
SpaceX's competitive threat makes AST SpaceMobile less attractive at these levels than SpaceX and Rocket Lab. AST SpaceMobile's weekly chart shows a downtrend and strong outflows, though the stock is near marked support. x.comÂ
A stronger SpaceX could lift the wider space-stock basket, including AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Redwire, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace and Voyager Technologies. Per DeItaone, JPMorgan raised its SpaceX price target from $240 to $500 while maintaining Overweight. The seven space stocks rose alongside SpaceX after hours. Their initial post-IPO selloff was followed by macro-driven weakness, not further weakness caused by SpaceX. x.com x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab and other space stocks face being dragged toward zero by SpaceX's stock drop. With SpaceX valued above $1 trillion, it can buy them out with all-equity offers, the mega-cap way, and that is already happening. x.comÂ
Listed space stocks such as Satellogic, BlackSky, Voyager, Redwire, Intuitive Machines, Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab are the plays ahead of the SpaceX IPO. AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab are favorites and still look healthy on the charts despite recent pullbacks. @sunxliao notes the group ranges from about $0.7B to $39B in market cap versus a roughly $1.75 trillion SpaceX IPO valuation, a gap he expects to deliver big returns in coming months. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab completing its $1.94 billion ATM to fund the Iridium deal removes an overhang that likely suppressed the whole space sector. As the lead high-beta space name, its ATM selling in a thin, risk-off market was magnified by algos into AST SpaceMobile and peers; that pressure should now ease. After nearly four months of losses from the SpaceX IPO, macro risk-off, low summer liquidity and share sales, a base is starting to form. Delays or macro risk could still weigh. x.com x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile is likely to suffer more, and for longer, from the SpaceX IPO's drawdown because it is a smaller stock. Weeks after listing, everyone who bought SpaceX is underwater, and the whole space sector has fallen alongside it. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's selloff on SpaceX news looks excessive because the satellite-connectivity market could support multiple winners; AST need not be close to SpaceX to have a place. A further fall would make the opportunity more interesting, and AST would probably be the pick over SpaceX. x.com x.com x.comÂ
