mon
Independent Analyst, High-Risk Small-Cap & Growth Investing
Velo3D's $9.8 million, five-year IDIQ contract with the Defense Logistics Agency locks it in as a qualified supplier of additively manufactured parts across all five US service branches, a meaningful moat expansion. It will make metal parts facing long lead times or scarce domestic suppliers, though revenue depends on task orders over the five years. Velo is also moving toward a service model, paid to produce parts rather than only selling printers. x.com x.comÂ
Velo3D is a medium-term hold because qualification in defense additive manufacturing is a durable moat few rivals match. It has 25 machines in SpaceX, is qualified on Raptor 4, works with Anduril, and is the only metal 3D printer certified for the DoD's classified network. The FY2026 NDAA calls the field critical infrastructure and bars Chinese and Russian printers. Its market cap is under $250M after a restructuring; finances remain messy and revenue lumpy, and rivals could close the gap. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Velo3D is tripling its metal-printing production capacity to meet strong aerospace and defense demand, yet the stock is still 55% below its June highs, making it worth a starter position. An analyst's surveys show strong demand for metal printing in those sectors, and nLight's management confirmed it on its Q2 call. x.comÂ
Velo3D is the SpaceX-ecosystem supplier worth owning, since SpaceX uses multiple Velo3D Sapphire machines in-house for metal additive manufacturing of engine and rocket components. On the chart, the stock held support, forming a tweezer bottom off $16, and has moved more than 30% since. x.com x.comÂ
Velo3D's $500M shelf for ATM and warrant dilution is predatory relative to its $311M market cap, creating a material overhang for the stock. The company says the money will fund scaling 400 production systems over the next decade plus M&A, and its recent contracts, $32.6M from the Department of War, $11.5M from defense primes and $9.8M from the DLA, are largely positive. Velo3D can be strategically sound but financially much less so. x.comÂ
Velo3D is a picks-and-shovels play on SpaceX, which just filed to IPO at about a $1.75T valuation. It is qualified for five parts in current Raptor engines and already produces for Raptor 4, under a licensing deal so embedded that SpaceX gets IP access if Velo3D fails. Margins are inflecting as it shifts from one-time machine sales to recurring part printing, targeted at about 40% of 2026 revenue: gross margin went from -29% in Q1'24 to +17% in Q1'26. Anduril and gas-turbine deals add catalysts. … Show more
Velo3D is effectively becoming a regulated monopoly for complex metal geometries in the Starship and Anduril supply chains, because re-qualifying another supplier carries heavy cost and friction. That lock-in, more than the technology itself, is the real bull case. Per @moninvestor, the US defense industrial base still relies on slow casting and forging with long lead times, and the Department of Defense has acknowledged its supply chains are not responsive enough. x.comÂ
Velo3D is one of the best ways to invest in SpaceX's production ramp, since spending from SpaceX's IPO capital will flow down to whoever prints its engines. Its Sapphire printers make complex propulsion parts without support structures, and it is qualified on five current Raptor parts and the next-generation Raptor 4. Customers also include Anduril, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Aerojet Rocketdyne and the US Navy, Army and Air Force. x.com x.comÂ
Velo3D is not a company with a good future but one that goes big if the future plays out. Per @byRudim, its year-end 2025 backlog was $31 million, up 94%, and its Intelligent Fusion metal printing opens parts that could not be made before. With a market cap of about $200 million and unproven management, it will likely need substantial capital, so expect dilutive raises along the way and invest slowly. x.com x.comÂ
Unusual Machines is scaling into a go-to US supplier as NDAA and FCC rules ban non-compliant drone components and leave military buyers short of parts. Its Orlando plant makes 15,000 motors a month, with capacity doubling, and it won a 3,500-motor order for the Army's 101st Airborne, with 20,000 more planned for 2026, plus $3.75M of PDW FPV component orders. Management confirms deepening DoD engagement, and any $10M-$100M exclusive DoD component contract could trigger a rerating. x.comÂ
Velo3D set up a new $100 million at-the-market program to sell stock, which the market seems to like, though announcing it after 4 PM on a Friday is a habit of sketchy companies. Signed May 15, 2026 with Needham, Cantor Fitzgerald and Craig-Hallum at a 3% commission, it replaces the 2023 Needham-only program and funds working capital and general corporate purposes. It is the second important release put out late on a Friday in about a month. x.comÂ
Defense, drone and space stocks such as AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, Kratos and AeroVironment are set to receive non-cyclical, perpetual capex while many sit 60%-70% below their highs. Spending is rising in the US and across the rest of the world, flowing to names that are not crowded or recently up 1,000%. The sector has reset and been left for dead, making it a target basket for next year, including Ondas, LightPath, nLight, Karman and Inflection Point. x.com x.comÂ
