Serenity
AI & Semiconductor Supply-Chain Researcher, Trader
Velo3D's $500M shelf for ATM and warrant dilution is predatory relative to its $311M market cap, creating a material overhang for the stock. The company says the money will fund scaling 400 production systems over the next decade plus M&A, and its recent contracts, $32.6M from the Department of War, $11.5M from defense primes and $9.8M from the DLA, are largely positive. Velo3D can be strategically sound but financially much less so. x.comÂ
Elemental Royalty has a genuine pivot catalyst in a $450M US Department of War commitment tied to a tungsten supply award. It also has a strong recent IPO chart, a low float and high short interest, giving it the criteria of a potential winner. A negative market could still drag it down. x.com x.comÂ
WhiteFiber's ability to fund its ramp without dilution was the key test for the stock, and a convertible announcement worth about a quarter of its market cap, flagged by @OG_PViews, cuts against it. Signed contracts help, including a ten-year, $865M NC-1 deal and a $160M Paris deployment, and retrofit builds cost up to 40% less than greenfield. But access to capital is the main hurdle, with a $100M term loan from majority owner Bit Digital, and AI managements tend to dilute given heavy capex. … Show more
Velo3D set up a new $100 million at-the-market program to sell stock, which the market seems to like, though announcing it after 4 PM on a Friday is a habit of sketchy companies. Signed May 15, 2026 with Needham, Cantor Fitzgerald and Craig-Hallum at a 3% commission, it replaces the 2023 Needham-only program and funds working capital and general corporate purposes. It is the second important release put out late on a Friday in about a month. x.comÂ
Corning's $2B at-the-market facility with Goldman Sachs is an option to sell stock, not a raise, so Friday's after-hours drop priced dilution that may never happen. The 8-K says sales may be limited, depend on market conditions and capital needs, and fund general corporate purposes with no named project. Notably, Corning arranged it while its new revenue stream has not started; its CEO said scale-up and photonics are not yet in results. The next 10-Q will show whether the share count moves. … Show more
Velo3D is not a company with a good future but one that goes big if the future plays out. Per @byRudim, its year-end 2025 backlog was $31 million, up 94%, and its Intelligent Fusion metal printing opens parts that could not be made before. With a market cap of about $200 million and unproven management, it will likely need substantial capital, so expect dilutive raises along the way and invest slowly. x.com x.comÂ
Velo3D is effectively becoming a regulated monopoly for complex metal geometries in the Starship and Anduril supply chains, because re-qualifying another supplier carries heavy cost and friction. That lock-in, more than the technology itself, is the real bull case. Per @moninvestor, the US defense industrial base still relies on slow casting and forging with long lead times, and the Department of Defense has acknowledged its supply chains are not responsive enough. x.comÂ
Velo3D is tripling its metal-printing production capacity to meet strong aerospace and defense demand, yet the stock is still 55% below its June highs, making it worth a starter position. An analyst's surveys show strong demand for metal printing in those sectors, and nLight's management confirmed it on its Q2 call. x.comÂ
Velo3D is the SpaceX-ecosystem supplier worth owning, since SpaceX uses multiple Velo3D Sapphire machines in-house for metal additive manufacturing of engine and rocket components. On the chart, the stock held support, forming a tweezer bottom off $16, and has moved more than 30% since. x.com x.comÂ
Velo3D is one of the best ways to invest in SpaceX's production ramp, since spending from SpaceX's IPO capital will flow down to whoever prints its engines. Its Sapphire printers make complex propulsion parts without support structures, and it is qualified on five current Raptor parts and the next-generation Raptor 4. Customers also include Anduril, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Aerojet Rocketdyne and the US Navy, Army and Air Force. x.com x.comÂ
Velo3D's $9.8 million, five-year IDIQ contract with the Defense Logistics Agency locks it in as a qualified supplier of additively manufactured parts across all five US service branches, a meaningful moat expansion. It will make metal parts facing long lead times or scarce domestic suppliers, though revenue depends on task orders over the five years. Velo is also moving toward a service model, paid to produce parts rather than only selling printers. x.com x.comÂ
