Airline stocks are a no-brainer long as Delta Air Lines lifts off its 10-month EMA on the monthly chart despite oil and rate pressures. x.com 

Crude oil and the XLE energy-sector ETF would be buys on a pullback because uncertainty over a real military strike could hang over the US market from the midterms through year-end. Only an actual strike or a true peace deal would settle that uncertainty. x.com 

Airlines' fuel-driven fare hikes are finally cracking consumer demand. TSA checkpoint traffic is firmly negative year over year, while the airline ETF is breaking down. x.com 

Potential spending cuts and AI-related deflation make long-dated US Treasuries an asymmetric opportunity. A Democratic sweep could cut spending; an AI-trade blowup could cause deflation, while the AI trade hurts employment. Ending the Iran war could reduce spending and oil prices. Further crude gains could damage the economy hard and quickly enough to outweigh the inflation threat. x.com  x.com 

Oil will come down significantly, because Trump will eventually make a deal with Iran and put the conflict to bed. x.com 

Airlines remain a bad industry, and their new capacity discipline looks more like a lucky accident than strategy. Someone, probably American Airlines, will start dumping capacity on routes again and push margins back to zero. Oil may rise again and consumer spending may roll over. x.com 

Rate-sensitive stocks look set to outperform as the market looks ahead to rates nearing a peak. After four years to price in inflation, these sectors have been severely punished, are excessively cheap and nobody owns them, and their divergence from bonds reflects that anticipation. Biotech showed a confluence of bullish factors earlier this year, airlines and real estate followed, and fintech now looks primed, despite lingering skepticism over rate and oil pressures. x.com  x.com 

Aerospace stocks have been unfairly punished by noise while the sector's long-term structural trends remain incredibly strong. Not even COVID could bring aerospace down, and the latest correction stems from sharp geopolitical tensions and oil price spikes. A Trump climbdown and easing tensions should soon light the fuse. x.com 

Airlines including United, American, Southwest and Delta face at least a year of margin pressure from oil even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens almost immediately. At current jet fuel prices their earnings would be destroyed, and fare increases to offset it would hurt volumes significantly. None of this is priced in, and American Airlines could go to zero. Per Rory Johnston, lost Gulf output will top one billion barrels over the shock, with April losses nearly offsetting the IEA reserve release. … Show more

easyJet looks incredibly attractive after oil-driven pressure pushed its shares down, because strong European leisure demand should keep supporting the business. It earns over £10B of revenue and £703M of operating profit against a market cap below £3B, is back to net profit and yields about 3.5%. Its load factor is 92%, travel demand has held up through cost-of-living pressures, and budget airlines often gain share in weak economies as travellers trade down. x.com