Jordan
Long-Term Stock Investor, Compounding & Portfolio Construction
easyJet looks incredibly attractive after oil-driven pressure pushed its shares down, because strong European leisure demand should keep supporting the business. It earns over £10B of revenue and £703M of operating profit against a market cap below £3B, is back to net profit and yields about 3.5%. Its load factor is 92%, travel demand has held up through cost-of-living pressures, and budget airlines often gain share in weak economies as travellers trade down. x.com
Jet2 looks incredibly cheap, with an enterprise value close to zero at last check, possibly even cheaper than easyJet. A post the author replies to notes easyJet trades at about £2.5B EV while owning 58% of its fleet, 208 liquid narrowbody aircraft. x.com x.com
Airlines remain a bad industry, and their new capacity discipline looks more like a lucky accident than strategy. Someone, probably American Airlines, will start dumping capacity on routes again and push margins back to zero. Oil may rise again and consumer spending may roll over. x.com
Airlines' fuel-driven fare hikes are finally cracking consumer demand. TSA checkpoint traffic is firmly negative year over year, while the airline ETF is breaking down. x.com
United Airlines is showing that even a supposedly uninvestable airline can produce powerful earnings growth. Despite razor-thin margins, fuel, labor, debt and cyclical demand, Q1 FY26 revenue rose 11% to $14.6 billion, operating income 64% to $997 million, net income 81% to $699 million and diluted EPS 84% to $2.14. The quarter earns an A grade. x.com
Delta Air Lines looks cheap on forecast earnings: about 10x next year's estimated $7.89 per share versus 19x typical for airlines yields a $131.90-$167.87 fair range against $82.14. The estimate is 31% above trailing earnings; this is a levels-only screen based on reported forecasts, not fundamental diligence. x.com
Airline stocks are a simple way to bet on the Iran war ending well, since they move inverse to oil. An airline ETF offers lower implied volatility than individual carriers, about 28-30% on 2028 options, and is down 15% this year. x.com
Corporación América Airports has removed the top complaint against it by declaring a 91-cent dividend, nearly a 4% yield. The quarter was solid given higher oil prices and an airline failure in its largest market: revenue rose 8% on flat traffic and adjusted EBITDA fell only 4%. The valuation, under 6x EBITDA, has not risen since the COVID lows, while EBITDA has grown hundreds of percent. x.com x.com x.com
Ryanair is an incredibly asymmetric short because airlines carry huge margin risk. Within travel, Booking Holdings is a good long to fund it. x.com x.com
Delta's Q3 results support a bullish view despite fuel pressure: the airline absorbed $500M in higher fuel expenses while revenue rose 32.9% year over year to $20.2B and beat estimates by $1.28B, although adjusted EPS of $1.72 missed by $0.04. x.com
American, United, Southwest and Frontier are heading into peak summer travel with strong demand and some of the hottest chart bases. The World Cup adds another travel tailwind, and lower fuel costs could boost margins. x.com
