Ryanair faces a collapse in flight demand as airfares rise. Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary said fares could rise 10-20% if oil stays this high into summer 2027. The stock has made two false spikes above its 2018-2021 level, matching the 2018 Dow/gold and 2021 S&P 500/gold peaks, and with those ratios expected to plunge it cannot stay above that support. Once it falls permanently below, the demand collapse begins. x.com 

Airlines remain a bad industry, and their new capacity discipline looks more like a lucky accident than strategy. Someone, probably American Airlines, will start dumping capacity on routes again and push margins back to zero. Oil may rise again and consumer spending may roll over. x.com 

easyJet looks incredibly attractive after oil-driven pressure pushed its shares down, because strong European leisure demand should keep supporting the business. It earns over £10B of revenue and £703M of operating profit against a market cap below £3B, is back to net profit and yields about 3.5%. Its load factor is 92%, travel demand has held up through cost-of-living pressures, and budget airlines often gain share in weak economies as travellers trade down. x.com 

United Airlines and Delta Air Lines are probably near a peak, as hedge-fund pay and expectations sit at a cyclical high. The average hedge-fund vacation ranged from the South of France to the Amalfi Coast, a sign worth shorting. American Airlines is left out as a budget carrier. x.com  x.com 

Airlines' fuel-driven fare hikes are finally cracking consumer demand. TSA checkpoint traffic is firmly negative year over year, while the airline ETF is breaking down. x.com 

Booking Holdings sits squarely in the middle of a European summer travel nightmare and large language models' attack on online travel agencies. Its business model, exposure to the LLM threat and European exposure, given recession chances in Europe, make it the preferred travel short. x.com  x.com  x.com 

United Airlines is showing that even a supposedly uninvestable airline can produce powerful earnings growth. Despite razor-thin margins, fuel, labor, debt and cyclical demand, Q1 FY26 revenue rose 11% to $14.6 billion, operating income 64% to $997 million, net income 81% to $699 million and diluted EPS 84% to $2.14. The quarter earns an A grade. x.com 

United Airlines is dead money as the Iran war drives up its fuel bill. The Kobeissi Letter reports United's fuel costs rose by $340 million in the first quarter of 2026. x.com 

Airline stocks are a no-brainer long as Delta Air Lines lifts off its 10-month EMA on the monthly chart despite oil and rate pressures. x.com 

Allegiant Travel looks cheap against its forward earnings. It trades at about 8x next year's earnings, versus the roughly 19x airlines usually get, implying fair value of about $166-212, or 19x next year's $9.94 forecast EPS, give or take 12%. The view relies heavily on that forecast, which is 750% above trailing earnings, and is based on valuation levels only, not fundamental work. x.com