Delta's Q3 results support a bullish view despite fuel pressure: the airline absorbed $500M in higher fuel expenses while revenue rose 32.9% year over year to $20.2B and beat estimates by $1.28B, although adjusted EPS of $1.72 missed by $0.04. x.com
Stone Fox Capital
Founder, CIO & Portfolio Manager of Stone Fox Capital
Delta Air Lines looks extremely bullish because its pullback has been inefficient after a near-decade resistance level flipped into support on its largest buy volume since the COVID low. A $2 billion buy day was the largest since last summer, and the quarterly and monthly charts still show that heavy buying. x.com
Delta Air Lines looks cheap on forecast earnings: about 10x next year's estimated $7.89 per share versus 19x typical for airlines yields a $131.90-$167.87 fair range against $82.14. The estimate is 31% above trailing earnings; this is a levels-only screen based on reported forecasts, not fundamental diligence. x.com
Delta Air Lines and American Airlines look vulnerable because jet fuel supply is extremely tight. x.com
Airline stocks are a no-brainer long as Delta Air Lines lifts off its 10-month EMA on the monthly chart despite oil and rate pressures. x.com
Delta, United and Alaska should see margin expansion as the US-Iran deal and the lifted Hormuz naval blockade push oil lower into summer travel season. Crude fell from $92.16 on June 1 to $70.24, and fuel was 17–21% of their FY2025 opex; Alaska is the highest-beta name, with each $0.10/gallon move worth about $0.75 of EPS. Demand is at record highs and some fares are about 20% above last year. It is a high-risk macro trade, since the ceasefire is fragile and has been repeatedly violated. x.com
Delta Air Lines looks set to take a major blow to its reputation from the Delta/Starlink situation, which prompts a rare bearish view on the stock. This is probably an overreaction, though, and there is no plan to actually short it. x.com x.com
Cruise demand remains strong despite recession concerns. Royal Caribbean beat Q3 EPS expectations at $6.57 versus $6.38, grew revenue 9%, raised guidance and reported surging 2027 bookings; Viking and Carnival are also named in the cruise-operator view. x.com
Airlines' fuel-driven fare hikes are finally cracking consumer demand. TSA checkpoint traffic is firmly negative year over year, while the airline ETF is breaking down. x.com
United Airlines and Delta Air Lines are probably near a peak, as hedge-fund pay and expectations sit at a cyclical high. The average hedge-fund vacation ranged from the South of France to the Amalfi Coast, a sign worth shorting. American Airlines is left out as a budget carrier. x.com x.com
United Airlines is showing that even a supposedly uninvestable airline can produce powerful earnings growth. Despite razor-thin margins, fuel, labor, debt and cyclical demand, Q1 FY26 revenue rose 11% to $14.6 billion, operating income 64% to $997 million, net income 81% to $699 million and diluted EPS 84% to $2.14. The quarter earns an A grade. x.com