Airline stocks are a no-brainer long as Delta Air Lines lifts off its 10-month EMA on the monthly chart despite oil and rate pressures. x.com 

Delta's Q3 results support a bullish view despite fuel pressure: the airline absorbed $500M in higher fuel expenses while revenue rose 32.9% year over year to $20.2B and beat estimates by $1.28B, although adjusted EPS of $1.72 missed by $0.04. x.com 

Airlines including United, American, Southwest and Delta face at least a year of margin pressure from oil even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens almost immediately. At current jet fuel prices their earnings would be destroyed, and fare increases to offset it would hurt volumes significantly. None of this is priced in, and American Airlines could go to zero. Per Rory Johnston, lost Gulf output will top one billion barrels over the shock, with April losses nearly offsetting the IEA reserve release. … Show more

Delta Air Lines looks extremely bullish because its pullback has been inefficient after a near-decade resistance level flipped into support on its largest buy volume since the COVID low. A $2 billion buy day was the largest since last summer, and the quarterly and monthly charts still show that heavy buying. x.com 

Crude oil's latest drop reflects real Gulf export capacity coming back, which erodes Iran's Hormuz leverage. Saudi Arabia resumed loadings at Yanbu, with the East-West Pipeline at 2-2.65m barrels a day and seen by Kpler rising to 3-4m soon. Saudi and UAE shuttle tankers under US escort have restored at least 60% of pre-war flows. The risk: Qatar's mediation is stuck, per Axios, and a squeezed Iran may escalate against ports, refineries, pipelines or Red Sea shipping. x.com 

Delta Air Lines and American Airlines look vulnerable because jet fuel supply is extremely tight. x.com 

Oil transport and refining face renewed disruption risk, making crude oil look ready for another leg up. The Hormuz Letter relays an Iranian announcement that a tanker hit a naval mine while leaving the Strait of Hormuz; @news_9x says Ukraine vowed to destroy all Russian refineries. AP reports an official said a missile struck a passenger terminal in Riyadh. x.com 

Crude oil rises with every day the Strait of Hormuz stays shut, as traders on the other side give up. Reports of oil shortages, fuel rationing and shutdowns across Asia and Australia add to fear, and markets no longer believe Trump will back down. Trump must escalate militarily to reopen the strait, since Iran wants real concessions. Even the best case, boots on the ground with quick success, drives oil up short term; a drawn-out conflict is the worst case, and markets are not prepared for it. … Show more

Delta Air Lines' refinery does not insulate it from higher oil prices. Investor_NICK_ called Delta 'bulletproof,' but investors relying on refinery ownership as an oil hedge will learn otherwise soon. x.com 

Crude oil is going through a real-time supply-chain repricing, not just a headline scare. Crossings are at zero, Brent is at $100, Aramco is rerouting to Sidi Kerir, and diversions around the Cape of Good Hope add weeks to delivery. x.com