Shell's stronger refining profits and larger buyback support the view that its breakout holds. Q3 adjusted earnings reached $10.8 billion versus $9.9 billion expected, as refining margins hit a record $42 a barrel; the three-month buyback rises from $3 billion to $5 billion. Those margins will not last forever. x.com 

Delta Air Lines and American Airlines look vulnerable because jet fuel supply is extremely tight. x.com 

Delta, United and Alaska should see margin expansion as the US-Iran deal and the lifted Hormuz naval blockade push oil lower into summer travel season. Crude fell from $92.16 on June 1 to $70.24, and fuel was 17–21% of their FY2025 opex; Alaska is the highest-beta name, with each $0.10/gallon move worth about $0.75 of EPS. Demand is at record highs and some fares are about 20% above last year. It is a high-risk macro trade, since the ceasefire is fragile and has been repeatedly violated. x.com 

Airline stocks are a no-brainer long as Delta Air Lines lifts off its 10-month EMA on the monthly chart despite oil and rate pressures. x.com 

Refiners such as Valero and PBF look past their best, because higher oil prices are no longer necessarily bullish for them. Per a client, refiners are running at 95% and still can't build finished-product inventories. These look like as-good-as-it-gets earnings, and prices look ahead to demand deconstruction: high prices force alternatives and faster cost-cutting. Capacity scarcity still supports valuations, as with AI stocks, but price controls always backfire. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Delta Air Lines looks extremely bullish because its pullback has been inefficient after a near-decade resistance level flipped into support on its largest buy volume since the COVID low. A $2 billion buy day was the largest since last summer, and the quarterly and monthly charts still show that heavy buying. x.com 

Delta Air Lines looks set to take a major blow to its reputation from the Delta/Starlink situation, which prompts a rare bearish view on the stock. This is probably an overreaction, though, and there is no plan to actually short it. x.com  x.com 

The oil trade is over because crude can no longer make higher highs, even with Middle East crude exports back near their peaks. Oil is trading around its average price of the last eight months and set a lower high in September, so it is only a matter of time before the market gives up. Crude looks about to fall through the floor, with rates following and high-beta stocks then going vertical as every dip gets bought. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Delta's Q3 results support a bullish view despite fuel pressure: the airline absorbed $500M in higher fuel expenses while revenue rose 32.9% year over year to $20.2B and beat estimates by $1.28B, although adjusted EPS of $1.72 missed by $0.04. x.com 

Airlines including United, American, Southwest and Delta face at least a year of margin pressure from oil even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens almost immediately. At current jet fuel prices their earnings would be destroyed, and fare increases to offset it would hurt volumes significantly. None of this is priced in, and American Airlines could go to zero. Per Rory Johnston, lost Gulf output will top one billion barrels over the shock, with April losses nearly offsetting the IEA reserve release. … Show more