Gali
Startup Investor at HyperGuap, Technology Investing, HyperChange
Delta Air Lines and American Airlines look vulnerable because jet fuel supply is extremely tight. x.comÂ
Delta's weaker in-flight internet is already costing it loyal customers. A seven-year Delta Diamond Medallion member quoted by Sawyer Merritt says a Starlink-equipped United flight led them to switch; their account describes Delta Wi-Fi outages, while United's connection let them work throughout the flight. x.comÂ
Delta Air Lines looks extremely bullish because its pullback has been inefficient after a near-decade resistance level flipped into support on its largest buy volume since the COVID low. A $2 billion buy day was the largest since last summer, and the quarterly and monthly charts still show that heavy buying. x.comÂ
Musk's Starlink decisions and implausible guidance put SpaceX shareholders at risk. He is throttling Starlink in Ukraine and issuing SpaceX guidance he will never hit. His conduct harms his shareholders more than that of any other company. x.comÂ
Airline stocks are a no-brainer long as Delta Air Lines lifts off its 10-month EMA on the monthly chart despite oil and rate pressures. x.comÂ
Delta's Q3 results support a bullish view despite fuel pressure: the airline absorbed $500M in higher fuel expenses while revenue rose 32.9% year over year to $20.2B and beat estimates by $1.28B, although adjusted EPS of $1.72 missed by $0.04. x.comÂ
United Airlines and Delta Air Lines are probably near a peak, as hedge-fund pay and expectations sit at a cyclical high. The average hedge-fund vacation ranged from the South of France to the Amalfi Coast, a sign worth shorting. American Airlines is left out as a budget carrier. x.com x.comÂ
Berkshire Hathaway's recent bets show impressive mental dexterity, but they are still small dollars for a company its size. It bought Alphabet above its long-term average multiple, at more than twice its price of a year earlier, perhaps the highest multiple Berkshire has paid for an investment that size, apparently betting on good returns from roughly $200B of growing AI capex. It also bought Delta despite Buffett calling airlines a mistake after COVID. x.com x.comÂ
Delta Air Lines looks cheap on forecast earnings: about 10x next year's estimated $7.89 per share versus 19x typical for airlines yields a $131.90-$167.87 fair range against $82.14. The estimate is 31% above trailing earnings; this is a levels-only screen based on reported forecasts, not fundamental diligence. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's long-term return looks doubtful against a much larger, much lower-cost competitor in Starlink. Elon Musk says Starlink will ultimately have more than 100,000 satellites for broadband and direct-to-cellphone connectivity. AST investors may be getting nervous ahead of Tuesday. x.comÂ