Warren Redlich
AI Stocks Report, Equity & Options Strategies
AST SpaceMobile's long-term return looks doubtful against a much larger, much lower-cost competitor in Starlink. Elon Musk says Starlink will ultimately have more than 100,000 satellites for broadband and direct-to-cellphone connectivity. AST investors may be getting nervous ahead of Tuesday. x.comÂ
SpaceX's move makes AST SpaceMobile's future pricing power more uncertain and leaves less room for delays. That makes AST a bearish lean here, despite the real possibility that mobile carriers back it more aggressively if Starlink goes after their customers. AST can still succeed, but execution is far from guaranteed and competition is getting stronger. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's competitive threat makes AST SpaceMobile less attractive at these levels than SpaceX and Rocket Lab. AST SpaceMobile's weekly chart shows a downtrend and strong outflows, though the stock is near marked support. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile has more of a moat abroad where Starlink cannot operate. The Ukraine-Starlink dispute is likely to keep Starlink out of the EU and other markets. In the US, the thesis rests completely on mobile network operators that appear to need AST to fight Starlink. AST never had an overall moat, and it should be further ahead by now. x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's economics remain unproven while its finances are strained by heavy capex, negative operating cash flow, rising debt and frequent stock issuance. The forecast opportunity is the only positive; Piper Sandler's cut to its target to $54 from $98 is significant. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's reliance on competitor SpaceX for satellite launches weakens its moat further. SpaceX has bought its own spectrum, raising competitive risk. Piper Sandler downgraded ASTS over the pace of 2026-27 launches and SpaceX's potential to limit launch availability or undercut service pricing, though the bank remains constructive beyond 2027. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-phone satellite network makes it an extremely bullish long-term space-economy bet. Partnerships with more than 60 mobile operators representing over 3 billion potential subscribers and about $1.3 billion in contracted revenue backlog support the case. It targets initial, intermittent broadband coverage in five countries before end-2026; its market cap is roughly half Rocket Lab's, though both face significant execution risks. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's progress toward its goals and revenue projections is good, but the question is how much future hype is already priced into the valuation. The bull thesis still holds, though not strongly enough to buy more in the $80s, and less-known opportunities look more appealing. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile is unattractive because it is a telecom business, already a poor industry to invest in, with no regulatory protection. That is the reply to @TheLongInvest's claim that AST is a 10x to 100x stock headed for a $2 trillion market cap in five years. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile looks attractive in the $40s despite SpaceX paying $8B for Grain spectrum, a price AST could not match. The stock appears to be pricing in near-complete pessimism, including an anticipated delay of beta service into early 2027. SpaceX's aggressive approach to mobile carriers may favor AST, but carriers continuing to brush it off would break the thesis. SpaceX was the likelier bidder, though AST had reasons for optimism. x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile faces growing satellite-cellular competition beyond Starlink Mobile, which, per Starlink, agreed to acquire a nationwide US low-band spectrum portfolio. A later 5,105-satellite direct-to-cell system from Amazon tied to Globalstar is also a threat. AST's best chance is giving AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile a fighting chance against them; that reliable Starlink Mobile service is a long way off doesn't matter. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
