Dr J Rould
Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background
AST SpaceMobile's progress toward its goals and revenue projections is good, but the question is how much future hype is already priced into the valuation. The bull thesis still holds, though not strongly enough to buy more in the $80s, and less-known opportunities look more appealing. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's economics remain unproven while its finances are strained by heavy capex, negative operating cash flow, rising debt and frequent stock issuance. The forecast opportunity is the only positive; Piper Sandler's cut to its target to $54 from $98 is significant. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile is unattractive because it is a telecom business, already a poor industry to invest in, with no regulatory protection. That is the reply to @TheLongInvest's claim that AST is a 10x to 100x stock headed for a $2 trillion market cap in five years. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile looks attractive in the $40s despite SpaceX paying $8B for Grain spectrum, a price AST could not match. The stock appears to be pricing in near-complete pessimism, including an anticipated delay of beta service into early 2027. SpaceX's aggressive approach to mobile carriers may favor AST, but carriers continuing to brush it off would break the thesis. SpaceX was the likelier bidder, though AST had reasons for optimism. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's competitive threat makes AST SpaceMobile less attractive at these levels than SpaceX and Rocket Lab. AST SpaceMobile's weekly chart shows a downtrend and strong outflows, though the stock is near marked support. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile is sinking with no good news expected before 2027, which even bulls accept, so a drop to $50 now looks slightly more likely than a jump to $70. It remains a great company with patent-locked technology, but executives' inability to execute is a big overhang, and the stock needs buyers fast. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-phone satellite network makes it an extremely bullish long-term space-economy bet. Partnerships with more than 60 mobile operators representing over 3 billion potential subscribers and about $1.3 billion in contracted revenue backlog support the case. It targets initial, intermittent broadband coverage in five countries before end-2026; its market cap is roughly half Rocket Lab's, though both face significant execution risks. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's latest offering hurts because it will have to keep diluting to reach its business goals while the stock is already overvalued. It traded above 100x price-to-sales a month ago, front-running 10 years of growth in one year, and dilution hurts most when the valuation is that stretched. At this price, even flawless execution and value creation don't make the shares attractive. x.com x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's negative fundamentals make this a time for patience. Trailing net income is -$811 million, free cash flow -$1.74 billion and EPS -$2.14; wait for a catalyst change, specifically growing earnings. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile is starting to look attractive after a 60% drop from its highs, an overshoot following a 500% run from early 2025. The 18.5% fall on a convertible offering looks excessive: per @ChairmansLedger, $1 billion at 1.625% with a capped call implies about 1.5% potential dilution, and the long-term thesis did not change. RSI at 31 is the lowest since the 2024 lows, at key Fibonacci and VWAP levels. High-beta momentum stocks overshoot both ways. x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's ~$20B valuation prices in years of growth despite only $31M in revenue last quarter, leaving expectations vulnerable to an unwind even as the business progresses. Space communications remains attractive long term, but a sustained loss of $50.70 could deepen the correction toward $19-35; that move is not certain. Holding support and reclaiming $60-66 by month-end would improve the outlook. A 10-15% market correction could also cause a selloff without implying business failure. … Show more
