Temple 8 Research
AI Buildout, Macro & Energy Infrastructure Research
AST SpaceMobile's latest offering hurts because it will have to keep diluting to reach its business goals while the stock is already overvalued. It traded above 100x price-to-sales a month ago, front-running 10 years of growth in one year, and dilution hurts most when the valuation is that stretched. At this price, even flawless execution and value creation don't make the shares attractive. x.com x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's climb could be harder than bulls expect, with short-term downside to $50 as the whole space sector sells off in coming months. Bulls treat it as a done deal that a 90-satellite constellation will serve a billion or more cellular customers and that shares will clear $200 within a year, but capacity is unclear, with some estimates at 100,000-200,000 customers per satellite. The stock could go nowhere for years; the long-term view is undecided but skeptical. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's progress toward its goals and revenue projections is good, but the question is how much future hype is already priced into the valuation. The bull thesis still holds, though not strongly enough to buy more in the $80s, and less-known opportunities look more appealing. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's economics remain unproven while its finances are strained by heavy capex, negative operating cash flow, rising debt and frequent stock issuance. The forecast opportunity is the only positive; Piper Sandler's cut to its target to $54 from $98 is significant. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile is starting to look attractive after a 60% drop from its highs, an overshoot following a 500% run from early 2025. The 18.5% fall on a convertible offering looks excessive: per @ChairmansLedger, $1 billion at 1.625% with a capped call implies about 1.5% potential dilution, and the long-term thesis did not change. RSI at 31 is the lowest since the 2024 lows, at key Fibonacci and VWAP levels. High-beta momentum stocks overshoot both ways. x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile is unattractive because it is a telecom business, already a poor industry to invest in, with no regulatory protection. That is the reply to @TheLongInvest's claim that AST is a 10x to 100x stock headed for a $2 trillion market cap in five years. x.comÂ
SpaceX's competitive threat makes AST SpaceMobile less attractive at these levels than SpaceX and Rocket Lab. AST SpaceMobile's weekly chart shows a downtrend and strong outflows, though the stock is near marked support. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile looks attractive in the $40s despite SpaceX paying $8B for Grain spectrum, a price AST could not match. The stock appears to be pricing in near-complete pessimism, including an anticipated delay of beta service into early 2027. SpaceX's aggressive approach to mobile carriers may favor AST, but carriers continuing to brush it off would break the thesis. SpaceX was the likelier bidder, though AST had reasons for optimism. x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's negative fundamentals make this a time for patience. Trailing net income is -$811 million, free cash flow -$1.74 billion and EPS -$2.14; wait for a catalyst change, specifically growing earnings. x.comÂ
Ascent Solar no longer earns attention because its CEO keeps building up NDAs and deals on small podcasts and nothing ever materializes. The stock mostly trades with the space basket, so AST SpaceMobile already provides enough space exposure. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile offers higher risk-reward than SpaceX because of the law of large numbers: it can go from $30B to $300B far faster than SpaceX can go from $2T to $20T. SpaceX is a great company that reaches beyond space and is attractive, but its almost $2T valuation is the drawback. x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile and other space stocks remain far too expensive, valuing an expectation that may never become reality. Many space stocks have crashed 50% yet still trade at 40x to 250x sales, AST at 250x, and could fall another 50% with no real value; the space economy is more science fiction than reality. @RosannaInvests argues AST is a cellular connectivity company whose carrier contracts could become recurring revenue. A 70% crash might make the risk worthwhile. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
