Reformed Trader
Day & Swing Trader
SpaceX's competitive threat makes AST SpaceMobile less attractive at these levels than SpaceX and Rocket Lab. AST SpaceMobile's weekly chart shows a downtrend and strong outflows, though the stock is near marked support. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile is unattractive because it is a telecom business, already a poor industry to invest in, with no regulatory protection. That is the reply to @TheLongInvest's claim that AST is a 10x to 100x stock headed for a $2 trillion market cap in five years. x.comÂ
Ascent Solar could find the market its technology was built for, because space AI needs power. Spun off from Martin Marietta with $500MM of paid-in capital, its tech was aimed at a market that never arrived, much like Aehr's early history. The addressable market is very unclear, and its governance record warrants small sizing; its CEO is an M&A banker, so the plan seems straightforward. x.comÂ
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile looks attractive in the $40s despite SpaceX paying $8B for Grain spectrum, a price AST could not match. The stock appears to be pricing in near-complete pessimism, including an anticipated delay of beta service into early 2027. SpaceX's aggressive approach to mobile carriers may favor AST, but carriers continuing to brush it off would break the thesis. SpaceX was the likelier bidder, though AST had reasons for optimism. x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's economics remain unproven while its finances are strained by heavy capex, negative operating cash flow, rising debt and frequent stock issuance. The forecast opportunity is the only positive; Piper Sandler's cut to its target to $54 from $98 is significant. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's latest offering hurts because it will have to keep diluting to reach its business goals while the stock is already overvalued. It traded above 100x price-to-sales a month ago, front-running 10 years of growth in one year, and dilution hurts most when the valuation is that stretched. At this price, even flawless execution and value creation don't make the shares attractive. x.com x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's selloff on SpaceX news looks excessive because the satellite-connectivity market could support multiple winners; AST need not be close to SpaceX to have a place. A further fall would make the opportunity more interesting, and AST would probably be the pick over SpaceX. x.com x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile is starting to look attractive after a 60% drop from its highs, an overshoot following a 500% run from early 2025. The 18.5% fall on a convertible offering looks excessive: per @ChairmansLedger, $1 billion at 1.625% with a capped call implies about 1.5% potential dilution, and the long-term thesis did not change. RSI at 31 is the lowest since the 2024 lows, at key Fibonacci and VWAP levels. High-beta momentum stocks overshoot both ways. x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's selloff looks irrational: if SpaceX plans to compete directly as a mobile network operator, AST's satellite connectivity could shift from a useful partnership to an operational necessity for global carriers. The case depends on SpaceX actually pursuing that competition. x.comÂ