RocketMan
Space Investor, Rocket Lab Focus
AST SpaceMobile has more of a moat abroad where Starlink cannot operate. The Ukraine-Starlink dispute is likely to keep Starlink out of the EU and other markets. In the US, the thesis rests completely on mobile network operators that appear to need AST to fight Starlink. AST never had an overall moat, and it should be further ahead by now. x.com x.com
AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-device connectivity could serve three big-tech buyers' strategic plans. Amazon could add it to satellite broadband and use Blue Origin for launch; Alphabet could bring it to Android outside mobile carriers; Meta could offer connectivity for devices built to bypass Apple's ecosystem. A strong case can be made for all three as acquirers, especially at beaten-down prices, though what happens is uncertain. x.com
AST SpaceMobile's beta testing and initial revenue could bring discovery and change perceptions, as coverage still treats satellite counts as a measure of service quality. VG reports that Zelenskyy warned Europe risks Ukraine's vulnerabilities if it relies on Starlink and urged European alternatives; AST is not mentioned. Sovereign satellite communications are now high on Europe's security agenda. x.com
Europe's push for satellite independence as Starlink expands could make AST SpaceMobile one of its most attractive alternatives and a major beneficiary. Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefónica and Vodafone, all AST partners, signed a letter of intent to explore a joint spectrum bid; AST cites over 500 million European subscribers. No spectrum purchase or exclusive AST contract is secured; regulatory approval, commercial agreements, deployment and cash flow must follow. x.com x.com
SpaceX's move makes AST SpaceMobile's future pricing power more uncertain and leaves less room for delays. That makes AST a bearish lean here, despite the real possibility that mobile carriers back it more aggressively if Starlink goes after their customers. AST can still succeed, but execution is far from guaranteed and competition is getting stronger. x.com x.com
AST SpaceMobile looks set to win as European mobile operators seek an alternative to Starlink. Bloomberg reports that some of Europe's biggest operators have agreed to form a consortium to bid for satellite spectrum and offer direct-to-mobile service to counter Starlink. x.com
AST SpaceMobile is semi-sovereign at best because an American company ultimately owns and controls its satellites. It is hard to see many countries, especially the EU, buying a fully sovereign pitch when they may want to own the entire space-mobile stack, as with compute infrastructure. AST can still win big on international agreements; some may be permanent, while others may be temporary if countries decide to build their own capacity. x.com x.com x.com
AST SpaceMobile's D2D prospects weaken as telcos look to Amazon and Ligado may give up spectrum. Telcos see Amazon as their most realistic potential savior, though their JV seems poised to sign MOUs with both. People consulted expect Amazon to buy Viasat mainly for international spectrum; US capacity and timing remain uncertain. AST's payments do not cover Ligado's Viasat dues, so Ligado may settle with the US for auction credits and surrender spectrum rights, leaving AST stranded. x.com
Anti-SpaceX demand could bring AST SpaceMobile and Amazon a lot of business. If Avery Sullivan's interpretation of AST's E-band filing as a push into consumer broadband is right, that would be huge for AST. x.com
AST SpaceMobile is the non-consensus winner of Starlink's IPO, because Starlink's aggression makes carriers more eager to fund their own satellite hedge. Every dollar Starlink takes from AT&T and Verizon pushes them toward AST, which runs through carrier billing and branding as a carrier-native partner rather than a competitor. AST has 60 carrier partners and $1.2B in contracted revenue commitments. The consensus that Starlink's listing finishes AST has it backwards. x.com x.com
AST SpaceMobile faces growing satellite-cellular competition beyond Starlink Mobile, which, per Starlink, agreed to acquire a nationwide US low-band spectrum portfolio. A later 5,105-satellite direct-to-cell system from Amazon tied to Globalstar is also a threat. AST's best chance is giving AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile a fighting chance against them; that reliable Starlink Mobile service is a long way off doesn't matter. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Brazil's spectrum access makes AST SpaceMobile's carrier-led expansion one of its most important developments this year. Anatel authorized 30 MHz of S-band and secondary use of 20 MHz of partners' 700 MHz spectrum; AST plans four gateways. These are not owned terrestrial rights. AST remains one of the most compelling long-term space opportunities, but revenue depends on launches, integration, adoption and viable sharing despite Starlink competition. x.com
