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Equity Investor, Finance Writer
AST SpaceMobile's beta testing and initial revenue could bring discovery and change perceptions, as coverage still treats satellite counts as a measure of service quality. VG reports that Zelenskyy warned Europe risks Ukraine's vulnerabilities if it relies on Starlink and urged European alternatives; AST is not mentioned. Sovereign satellite communications are now high on Europe's security agenda. x.com
Starlink's implied ~$1tn value and $27.6bn in D2D-related spectrum acquisitions suggest AST SpaceMobile could be worth more than ~$19bn if it delivers its plans, though it may not. A rerating is expected soon as investors unfamiliar with AST digest the implications. Friday's volume suggested capitulation, and trading before a long weekend probably exaggerated the sell-off. x.com
AST SpaceMobile has more of a moat abroad where Starlink cannot operate. The Ukraine-Starlink dispute is likely to keep Starlink out of the EU and other markets. In the US, the thesis rests completely on mobile network operators that appear to need AST to fight Starlink. AST never had an overall moat, and it should be further ahead by now. x.com x.com
Europe's push for satellite independence as Starlink expands could make AST SpaceMobile one of its most attractive alternatives and a major beneficiary. Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefónica and Vodafone, all AST partners, signed a letter of intent to explore a joint spectrum bid; AST cites over 500 million European subscribers. No spectrum purchase or exclusive AST contract is secured; regulatory approval, commercial agreements, deployment and cash flow must follow. x.com x.com
AST SpaceMobile faces growing satellite-cellular competition beyond Starlink Mobile, which, per Starlink, agreed to acquire a nationwide US low-band spectrum portfolio. A later 5,105-satellite direct-to-cell system from Amazon tied to Globalstar is also a threat. AST's best chance is giving AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile a fighting chance against them; that reliable Starlink Mobile service is a long way off doesn't matter. x.com x.com x.com x.com
AST SpaceMobile looks set to win as European mobile operators seek an alternative to Starlink. Bloomberg reports that some of Europe's biggest operators have agreed to form a consortium to bid for satellite spectrum and offer direct-to-mobile service to counter Starlink. x.com
European carriers seeking to counter Starlink could channel investment toward AST SpaceMobile; money can flow to both sides. Per Bloomberg, Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Vodafone and Telefonica are exploring a satellite consortium, but have not chosen a satellite provider. Vodafone already has an AST joint venture. x.com
SpaceX's move makes AST SpaceMobile's future pricing power more uncertain and leaves less room for delays. That makes AST a bearish lean here, despite the real possibility that mobile carriers back it more aggressively if Starlink goes after their customers. AST can still succeed, but execution is far from guaranteed and competition is getting stronger. x.com x.com
AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-phone satellite network makes it an extremely bullish long-term space-economy bet. Partnerships with more than 60 mobile operators representing over 3 billion potential subscribers and about $1.3 billion in contracted revenue backlog support the case. It targets initial, intermittent broadband coverage in five countries before end-2026; its market cap is roughly half Rocket Lab's, though both face significant execution risks. x.com
Brazil's spectrum access makes AST SpaceMobile's carrier-led expansion one of its most important developments this year. Anatel authorized 30 MHz of S-band and secondary use of 20 MHz of partners' 700 MHz spectrum; AST plans four gateways. These are not owned terrestrial rights. AST remains one of the most compelling long-term space opportunities, but revenue depends on launches, integration, adoption and viable sharing despite Starlink competition. x.com
AST SpaceMobile's D2D prospects weaken as telcos look to Amazon and Ligado may give up spectrum. Telcos see Amazon as their most realistic potential savior, though their JV seems poised to sign MOUs with both. People consulted expect Amazon to buy Viasat mainly for international spectrum; US capacity and timing remain uncertain. AST's payments do not cover Ligado's Viasat dues, so Ligado may settle with the US for auction credits and surrender spectrum rights, leaving AST stranded. x.com
AST SpaceMobile is semi-sovereign at best because an American company ultimately owns and controls its satellites. It is hard to see many countries, especially the EU, buying a fully sovereign pitch when they may want to own the entire space-mobile stack, as with compute infrastructure. AST can still win big on international agreements; some may be permanent, while others may be temporary if countries decide to build their own capacity. x.com x.com x.com
